NBA games

UTAH @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
118–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH32352229118
SA17343441126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home SA
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 33 27 4 2
Keyonte George S 33 19 2 5
John Collins S 33 18 14 3
Collin Sexton S 25 18 1 1
Brice Sensabaugh 22 18 6 1
Johnny Juzang 16 6 2 1
Kyle Filipowski S 18 4 9 1
Isaiah Collier 24 4 3 6
Drew Eubanks 22 4 6 2
Cody Williams 15 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Harrison Barnes S 36 25 10 1
Stephon Castle S 35 18 3 6
Zach Collins S 21 18 5 0
Julian Champagnie S 32 14 3 6
Chris Paul S 30 13 5 10
Keldon Johnson 28 12 8 4
Tre Jones 18 11 3 2
Charles Bassey 27 11 9 1
Malaki Branham 8 3 3 2
Blake Wesley 4 1 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach Collins · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Zach Collins makes 1-foot layup (Stephon Castle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 John Collins UTAH
13%
2 Collin Sexton UTAH
12%
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
12%
4 Stephon Castle SA
9%
5 Keyonte George UTAH
9%
6 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
7 Zach Collins SA
9%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
9%
9 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
8%
10 Chris Paul SA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
16%
Layup
49%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 John Collins UTAH 19.6 8.4 3.3
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 17.2 3.4 3.8
3 Keyonte George UTAH 17.1 3.1 5.7
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 16.0 5.9 2.5
5 Keldon Johnson SA 14.3 5.5 2.3
6 Stephon Castle SA 14.0 3.2 4.1
7 Chris Paul SA 12.5 3.6 8.5
8 Julian Champagnie SA 12.2 5.0 1.9
9 Harrison Barnes SA 10.3 4.0 2.1
10 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 9.2 4.6 2.3
11 Zach Collins SA 8.7 3.5 2.6
12 Malaki Branham SA 7.7 1.8 1.6
13 Tre Jones SA 7.1 2.4 3.9
14 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 6.8 1.5 1.2
15 Isaiah Collier UTAH 5.6 2.0 3.2
16 Johnny Juzang UTAH 5.5 1.9 0.9
17 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 5.3 2.5 0.8
18 Drew Eubanks UTAH 5.1 4.2 1.0
19 Cody Williams UTAH 4.9 2.5 1.4
20 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 4.5 1.5 0.6
21 Charles Bassey SA 4.5 3.8 0.7
22 Blake Wesley SA 4.1 1.0 1.4
23 Sidy Cissoko SA 3.3 1.7 0.8
24 Patty Mills UTAH 3.1 0.9 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.