NBA games

MIN @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
105–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN27242826105
TOR32202533110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home TOR
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 36 26 3 2
Julius Randle S 38 23 9 3
Jaden McDaniels S 42 22 7 3
Rudy Gobert S 36 13 11 2
Donte DiVincenzo 30 11 2 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 26 6 4 0
Rob Dillingham 10 2 0 1
Naz Reid 22 2 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 35 31 7 3
Chris Boucher 26 22 4 0
Scottie Barnes S 27 17 3 6
Jakob Poeltl S 29 15 12 2
Gradey Dick S 34 9 6 1
Jonathan Mogbo 19 6 7 1
Ochai Agbaji S 27 4 0 1
Jamison Battle 7 3 1 0
Davion Mitchell 27 3 2 8
Jamal Shead 8 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gradey Dick · Layup (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Gradey Dick makes two point shot (Scottie Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jakob Poeltl TOR
14%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
14%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
4 Julius Randle MIN
11%
5 Gradey Dick TOR
10%
6 Ochai Agbaji TOR
10%
7 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
9 Davion Mitchell TOR
7%
10 Anthony Edwards MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
21%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.4 4.6 4.4
2 RJ Barrett TOR 24.5 6.6 6.6
3 Julius Randle MIN 23.0 5.9 4.4
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.5 6.4 5.3
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR 19.9 11.9 3.1
6 Gradey Dick TOR 18.5 3.8 3.2
7 Naz Reid MIN 14.8 4.3 1.7
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR 13.1 4.7 2.6
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.9 10.3 2.2
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.5 4.1 1.5
11 Davion Mitchell TOR 10.1 3.1 5.3
12 Chris Boucher TOR 10.0 4.7 1.0
13 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 9.7 3.4 3.4
14 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.5 2.9 2.9
15 Luka Garza MIN 7.2 2.9 0.5
16 Daishen Nix MIN 6.4 1.7 1.3
17 Leonard Miller MIN 5.4 4.1 0.8
18 Jamison Battle TOR 4.3 1.4 0.9
19 Josh Minott MIN 4.1 1.9 0.6
20 Jamal Shead TOR 3.9 1.2 2.0
21 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 3.7 3.6 1.2
22 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.0 0.9 1.6
23 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 2.2 2.0 0.4
24 PJ Dozier MIN 2.0 0.6 0.5
25 Garrett Temple TOR 2.0 1.0 0.8
26 Joe Ingles MIN 1.8 0.9 1.5
27 Ulrich Chomche TOR 1.1 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.