NBA games

DET @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
121–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
DET2732203012121
CHA3330301614123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home CHA
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 37 27 7 10
Tobias Harris S 31 26 8 2
Malik Beasley 34 16 6 1
Isaiah Stewart 29 13 9 3
Jaden Ivey S 24 11 4 5
Simone Fontecchio 21 8 2 1
Wendell Moore Jr. 21 7 7 4
Ronald Holland II 14 6 2 1
Jalen Duren S 24 5 9 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 21 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 42 38 7 4
LaMelo Ball S 33 35 6 9
Cody Martin 36 15 3 1
Grant Williams S 40 12 3 1
Josh Green S 31 10 3 5
Tidjane Salaun 13 7 2 0
Tre Mann 21 5 2 0
Moussa Diabate S 32 1 16 1
Seth Curry 9 0 0 0
Taj Gibson 9 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Miller · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Brandon Miller makes dunk (LaMelo Ball assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
15%
2 Jaden Ivey DET
12%
3 Tobias Harris DET
12%
4 Jalen Duren DET
10%
5 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
9%
7 Taj Gibson CHA
9%
8 Grant Williams CHA
8%
9 LaMelo Ball CHA
7%
10 Josh Green CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
42%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 26.9 4.6 6.8
2 Cade Cunningham DET 24.2 8.0 9.6
3 Jaden Ivey DET 19.6 4.9 5.0
4 Brandon Miller CHA 16.9 4.2 3.9
5 Malik Beasley DET 15.6 3.6 2.2
6 Tobias Harris DET 15.1 6.8 2.6
7 Tre Mann CHA 14.0 3.2 3.6
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 11.5 2.0 2.1
9 Grant Williams CHA 11.0 5.9 2.0
10 Jalen Duren DET 9.3 9.9 2.4
11 Isaiah Stewart DET 9.1 6.7 1.6
12 Cody Martin CHA 8.4 4.0 2.2
13 Josh Green CHA 6.9 2.4 1.5
14 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.3 3.2 1.2
15 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.5 8.1 0.8
16 Ronald Holland II DET 5.2 2.7 0.7
17 Tidjane Salaun CHA 4.9 3.7 1.0
18 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 4.1 2.6 0.6
19 Vasilije Micic CHA 4.0 1.8 1.7
20 Marcus Sasser DET 3.7 1.2 1.1
21 Seth Curry CHA 3.6 1.5 0.5
22 KJ Simpson CHA 3.3 1.7 1.3
23 Paul Reed DET 3.0 2.3 0.7
24 Taj Gibson CHA 2.2 2.6 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.