NBA games

ORL @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
93–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL2529211893
LAC29283017104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home LAC
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Black 29 17 0 8
Jalen Suggs S 25 16 2 2
Franz Wagner S 35 14 6 6
Tristan da Silva S 26 10 3 1
Moritz Wagner 17 10 1 0
Goga Bitadze S 20 9 2 1
Jonathan Isaac 22 6 3 0
Jett Howard 11 4 3 1
Cole Anthony 3 3 0 1
Gary Harris 15 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 34 24 7 5
Amir Coffey S 33 18 4 1
Ivica Zubac S 31 17 12 3
Kevin Porter Jr. 20 10 4 6
Derrick Jones Jr. S 26 8 6 1
Jordan Miller 16 8 3 1
Kris Dunn S 26 7 3 3
Mo Bamba 15 7 4 1
Nicolas Batum 19 5 4 0
Terance Mann 15 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ivica Zubac · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Ivica Zubac makes 4-foot two point shot (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
16%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
3 James Harden LAC
13%
4 Jalen Suggs ORL
12%
5 Goga Bitadze ORL
11%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
9%
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
9%
8 Tristan da Silva ORL
9%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
10 Moritz Wagner ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
43%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 25.3 6.1 6.0
2 James Harden LAC 19.9 7.5 7.1
3 Jalen Suggs ORL 15.6 5.1 3.7
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 13.6 11.2 1.9
5 Moritz Wagner ORL 12.1 4.5 1.5
6 Amir Coffey LAC 10.5 2.9 1.5
7 Anthony Black ORL 9.5 3.2 4.2
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.3 3.1 1.2
9 Goga Bitadze ORL 9.1 7.3 1.6
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 9.0 3.0 2.0
11 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 8.7 3.0 3.2
12 Kris Dunn LAC 8.6 3.0 3.1
13 Tristan da Silva ORL 7.9 3.9 2.0
14 Terance Mann LAC 6.7 3.7 1.6
15 Jordan Miller LAC 6.5 1.7 0.8
16 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.4 4.8 0.6
17 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.6 2.1 0.9
18 Cole Anthony ORL 4.4 2.1 1.2
19 Bones Hyland LAC 4.3 1.7 0.6
20 Kobe Brown LAC 4.1 3.4 1.0
21 Gary Harris ORL 4.0 1.8 0.7
22 Jett Howard ORL 3.3 1.0 0.3
23 Kai Jones LAC 2.1 1.8 0.3
24 Cory Joseph ORL 2.0 0.9 0.7
25 Caleb Houstan ORL 1.4 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.