NBA games

ATL @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
97–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL2220332297
GS41262330120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home GS
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 35 15 14 4
Trae Young S 30 12 3 11
Zaccharie Risacher S 19 12 8 2
Dyson Daniels S 31 11 6 3
Clint Capela S 22 11 10 1
De'Andre Hunter 25 10 6 1
Onyeka Okongwu 23 9 7 0
Kobe Bufkin 18 6 3 1
Bogdan Bogdanovic 23 6 7 1
Garrison Mathews 4 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 30 27 7 4
Stephen Curry S 30 23 4 8
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 22 14 11 4
Buddy Hield 20 11 2 0
Lindy Waters III S 23 10 3 1
Jonathan Kuminga 15 10 6 2
Draymond Green S 28 9 7 9
Gary Payton II 6 6 2 0
Moses Moody 19 3 3 1
Brandin Podziemski 15 3 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lindy Waters III · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Lindy Waters III makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
13%
2 Andrew Wiggins GS
11%
3 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
4 Stephen Curry GS
10%
5 Clint Capela ATL
9%
6 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
9%
8 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
9%
9 Draymond Green GS
7%
10 Garrison Mathews ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
26%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.7 5.5 7.1
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.8 10.3 6.0
3 Trae Young ATL 22.4 3.4 11.8
4 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.4 5.5 3.7
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 16.5 4.8 2.5
6 Buddy Hield GS 15.8 3.9 2.0
7 Andrew Wiggins GS 15.3 4.6 2.3
8 De'Andre Hunter ATL 13.9 4.0 1.8
9 Kobe Bufkin ATL 13.8 3.4 3.7
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 13.5 4.4 1.9
11 Draymond Green GS 12.5 6.3 6.0
12 Clint Capela ATL 11.6 9.0 1.3
13 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.0 4.4 3.5
14 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 9.5 6.6 1.7
15 Garrison Mathews ATL 8.7 2.0 1.8
16 Moses Moody GS 8.1 2.6 1.3
17 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 7.6 4.9 2.2
18 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 7.1 2.9 2.0
19 Kyle Anderson GS 6.6 3.4 2.4
20 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 6.5 2.5 1.2
21 David Roddy ATL 6.4 3.3 1.5
22 Lindy Waters III GS 6.2 2.3 1.5
23 Vit Krejci ATL 5.8 2.1 2.2
24 Kevon Looney GS 5.4 7.8 1.4
25 Gary Payton II GS 4.5 2.5 1.1
26 Gui Santos GS 1.8 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.