NBA games

NY @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
138–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY44323428138
PHX28303529122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home PHX
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 37 36 2 10
Karl-Anthony Towns S 34 34 10 2
Josh Hart S 39 19 11 6
Mikal Bridges S 40 16 3 5
OG Anunoby S 35 14 7 1
Cameron Payne 26 12 1 3
Jericho Sims 14 4 6 2
Tyler Kolek 11 3 1 1
Jacob Toppin 2 0 0 0
Pacome Dadiet 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 38 33 3 5
Royce O'Neale S 33 17 4 2
Tyus Jones S 31 15 3 10
Jusuf Nurkic S 33 14 12 3
Monte Morris 12 10 0 0
Grayson Allen 21 8 1 1
Ryan Dunn S 22 8 2 3
Josh Okogie 22 7 4 2
Bol Bol 4 4 2 0
Damion Lee 4 4 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
15%
2 Devin Booker PHX
12%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
4 OG Anunoby NY
9%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
6 Oso Ighodaro PHX
8%
7 Josh Hart NY
8%
8 Mason Plumlee PHX
8%
9 Tyus Jones PHX
7%
10 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
44%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 26.9 12.0 4.0
2 Jalen Brunson NY 25.7 3.4 7.6
3 Devin Booker PHX 23.2 4.0 7.2
4 OG Anunoby NY 20.0 5.9 2.8
5 Mikal Bridges NY 16.8 4.5 3.5
6 Josh Hart NY 14.5 7.7 6.0
7 Tyus Jones PHX 12.4 2.7 5.8
8 Grayson Allen PHX 10.0 2.8 1.3
9 Royce O'Neale PHX 8.7 5.6 1.8
10 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 8.6 8.9 1.3
11 Josh Okogie PHX 8.3 3.5 1.2
12 Cameron Payne NY 7.3 2.0 3.0
13 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.6 3.0 1.0
14 Mason Plumlee PHX 6.3 6.0 2.1
15 Oso Ighodaro PHX 5.1 3.8 0.8
16 Pacome Dadiet NY 5.0 2.1 0.6
17 Monte Morris PHX 5.0 1.6 1.2
18 Bol Bol PHX 4.9 3.0 0.8
19 Tyler Kolek NY 4.5 1.3 1.0
20 Jericho Sims NY 3.5 4.0 0.8
21 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 3.3 0.8 0.5
22 Damion Lee PHX 3.2 0.8 0.7
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.9 2.8 0.7
24 Matt Ryan NY 2.5 0.9 0.5
25 Jacob Toppin NY 2.3 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.