NBA games

POR @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
99–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR2321253099
OKC21262339109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home OKC
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 38 21 4 2
Jerami Grant S 39 14 6 1
Toumani Camara S 38 14 9 2
Deni Avdija 24 13 6 1
Donovan Clingan S 21 10 9 0
Dalano Banton 25 10 4 2
Scoot Henderson S 27 9 3 8
Robert Williams III 24 4 8 2
Kris Murray 4 4 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 36 30 7 8
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 39 28 5 4
Alex Caruso 15 17 1 2
Isaiah Hartenstein 29 13 14 3
Ajay Mitchell 22 10 4 1
Aaron Wiggins S 15 5 2 0
Kenrich Williams 5 4 1 0
Luguentz Dort S 30 2 5 2
Cason Wallace S 26 0 4 2
Adam Flagler 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jerami Grant · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Jerami Grant makes free throw 1 of 3"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
9%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
5 Anfernee Simons POR
9%
6 Jerami Grant POR
8%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
7%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
75%
Jumper
6%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.5 4.9 6.9
2 Jalen Williams OKC 24.0 6.9 5.4
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 18.0 3.8 2.5
4 Anfernee Simons POR 16.4 2.8 3.9
5 Jerami Grant POR 14.8 3.5 2.4
6 Deandre Ayton POR 12.3 10.5 1.4
7 Luguentz Dort OKC 12.2 4.7 2.1
8 Robert Williams III POR 11.5 7.1 1.9
9 Dalano Banton POR 10.8 2.8 2.8
10 Scoot Henderson POR 10.6 3.1 4.6
11 Toumani Camara POR 10.3 5.2 2.1
12 Deni Avdija POR 10.3 5.5 3.2
13 Aaron Wiggins OKC 10.0 3.8 1.9
14 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 8.1 7.3 4.4
15 Cason Wallace OKC 7.8 3.5 1.9
16 Ajay Mitchell OKC 6.1 1.9 1.9
17 Alex Caruso OKC 6.0 3.3 1.8
18 Donovan Clingan POR 5.8 6.0 0.8
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.3 2.8 0.9
20 Adam Flagler OKC 4.7 1.5 0.7
21 Kris Murray POR 4.5 2.8 0.8
22 Dillon Jones OKC 4.1 2.7 1.0
23 Rayan Rupert POR 3.7 1.6 0.6
24 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.6 2.4 0.9
25 Branden Carlson OKC 2.7 1.6 0.7
26 Duop Reath POR 2.6 1.1 0.5
27 Jabari Walker POR 2.6 2.0 0.3
28 Alex Ducas OKC 2.5 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.