NBA games

PHI @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
111–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI31222830111
MEM31322727117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home MEM
9% 91%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 35 35 11 2
Jared McCain S 41 20 2 5
Guerschon Yabusele 19 17 4 2
Andre Drummond 13 11 6 0
Tyrese Maxey S 20 8 3 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. 23 7 5 1
Reggie Jackson 17 5 1 1
Ricky Council IV 13 4 1 1
Paul George S 17 2 4 2
Caleb Martin S 32 2 3 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 30 25 4 1
Desmond Bane S 35 21 10 6
Jaylen Wells S 29 14 2 1
Santi Aldama 27 12 6 6
Luke Kennard 25 12 3 4
Jake LaRavia 25 11 5 4
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 26 8 4 3
Jay Huff 14 8 0 2
Brandon Clarke S 19 6 6 0
Cam Spencer 9 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Maxey · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:01 Q1
"Tyrese Maxey makes 3-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
24%
2 Joel Embiid PHI
12%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
4 Desmond Bane MEM
9%
5 Paul George PHI
9%
6 Brandon Clarke MEM
8%
7 Jared McCain PHI
8%
8 Jaylen Wells MEM
7%
9 Caleb Martin PHI
7%
10 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
33%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 22.4 6.8 1.9
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 20.2 3.0 4.1
3 Desmond Bane MEM 18.9 5.7 4.0
4 Jared McCain PHI 18.3 3.0 3.4
5 Paul George PHI 18.1 5.1 4.9
6 Joel Embiid PHI 17.1 6.7 4.0
7 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 14.2 4.6 5.2
8 Santi Aldama MEM 14.0 7.2 3.2
9 Jaylen Wells MEM 12.9 3.8 1.8
10 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 11.3 4.8 1.4
11 Caleb Martin PHI 10.9 4.3 2.4
12 Jake LaRavia MEM 10.9 4.9 3.8
13 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 8.6 4.6 1.5
14 Andre Drummond PHI 8.4 8.4 1.1
15 Jay Huff MEM 7.7 3.0 0.9
16 Luke Kennard MEM 6.9 2.4 2.9
17 Eric Gordon PHI 6.3 1.6 1.5
18 Brandon Clarke MEM 6.3 3.3 0.9
19 KJ Martin PHI 3.9 2.0 0.4
20 Reggie Jackson PHI 3.2 0.8 1.4
21 Ricky Council IV PHI 2.9 1.2 0.7
22 Lester Quinones PHI 2.9 1.3 0.4
23 Adem Bona PHI 2.2 1.7 0.5
24 Yuki Kawamura MEM 1.8 0.4 1.0
25 Colin Castleton MEM 1.3 1.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.