NBA games

IND @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
113–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND23302436113
HOU30323632130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home HOU
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Quenton Jackson S 27 24 2 3
Pascal Siakam S 31 21 4 0
T.J. McConnell 19 17 1 4
Myles Turner S 29 10 9 2
Bennedict Mathurin S 25 8 5 0
Johnny Furphy 21 6 1 0
Enrique Freeman 14 6 1 1
Moses Brown 7 6 4 0
Jarace Walker 20 5 3 0
Tyrese Haliburton S 30 4 1 8
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 28 31 12 2
Jabari Smith Jr. S 30 23 8 1
Fred VanVleet S 35 18 2 6
Jalen Green S 28 14 4 5
Tari Eason 23 11 9 1
Reed Sheppard 17 7 2 3
Amen Thompson 17 6 1 0
Jock Landale 13 6 4 3
Dillon Brooks S 22 4 1 3
Cam Whitmore 5 4 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Layup (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
3 Myles Turner IND
9%
4 Jalen Green HOU
9%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
6 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND
8%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
9 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
10 Enrique Freeman IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
31%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 21.8 5.9 3.5
2 Bennedict Mathurin IND 21.5 7.7 2.5
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.6 10.5 5.7
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 18.6 3.7 8.9
5 Myles Turner IND 17.6 6.4 1.7
6 Jalen Green HOU 17.4 4.9 3.1
7 Fred VanVleet HOU 17.0 4.9 6.0
8 Tari Eason HOU 13.7 7.6 1.5
9 Amen Thompson HOU 13.3 7.9 2.8
10 Dillon Brooks HOU 11.8 3.5 1.7
11 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.6 5.6 1.0
12 Obi Toppin IND 9.3 3.3 1.5
13 T.J. McConnell IND 8.7 2.8 3.8
14 Jarace Walker IND 6.4 4.0 1.7
15 Ben Sheppard IND 6.4 2.6 1.4
16 Reed Sheppard HOU 5.2 1.8 1.4
17 Quenton Jackson IND 4.9 1.8 1.4
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.6 1.3 1.1
19 Steven Adams HOU 4.2 3.6 1.2
20 Enrique Freeman IND 4.1 2.8 0.7
21 Cam Whitmore HOU 4.1 1.3 0.8
22 Jock Landale HOU 4.1 3.1 0.9
23 Nate Williams HOU 3.6 1.1 0.6
24 Jeff Green HOU 3.4 1.6 0.7
25 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.0 2.3 0.8
26 Johnny Furphy IND 2.6 1.1 0.4
27 James Johnson IND 1.3 0.6 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.