NBA games

CHI @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
106–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI30273316106
MIL36332924122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home MIL
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 33 27 5 6
Torrey Craig S 28 15 6 2
Nikola Vucevic S 35 14 6 6
Coby White S 32 14 2 2
Dalen Terry 16 10 1 1
Ayo Dosunmu 32 8 3 3
Julian Phillips 14 6 2 0
Josh Giddey S 26 5 4 3
Jalen Smith 12 5 1 2
Matas Buzelis 6 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 35 41 9 8
Brook Lopez S 35 21 5 3
Damian Lillard S 36 20 5 10
AJ Green 27 18 2 1
Gary Trent Jr. 29 11 6 0
Bobby Portis 22 8 6 6
Delon Wright 12 3 1 0
Andre Jackson Jr. S 14 0 4 1
MarJon Beauchamp 2 0 1 0
Liam Robbins 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brook Lopez · Jumper (2 pts) · 9:48 Q1
"Brook Lopez makes 13-foot two point shot (Damian Lillard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
17%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
14%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
4 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
10%
6 Zach LaVine CHI
10%
7 Coby White CHI
9%
8 Taurean Prince MIL
9%
9 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
8%
10 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
45%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 34.0 11.4 8.3
2 Damian Lillard MIL 26.2 4.3 7.4
3 Zach LaVine CHI 21.5 5.3 5.1
4 Coby White CHI 21.0 3.5 5.5
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.8 9.4 3.2
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 13.9 4.0 3.9
7 Bobby Portis MIL 13.3 7.6 1.4
8 Brook Lopez MIL 12.1 5.3 1.8
9 Josh Giddey CHI 11.9 5.2 6.2
10 Taurean Prince MIL 10.6 4.6 2.5
11 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 8.1 2.1 1.4
12 AJ Green MIL 8.0 2.4 1.3
13 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 6.9 2.9 1.9
14 Jalen Smith CHI 6.4 4.6 1.0
15 Dalen Terry CHI 5.7 2.6 1.3
16 Delon Wright MIL 5.0 2.5 2.2
17 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.0 2.2 1.6
18 Julian Phillips CHI 4.8 2.4 0.8
19 Matas Buzelis CHI 4.0 2.7 0.6
20 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 4.0 1.8 1.2
21 Chris Duarte CHI 3.6 1.3 0.7
22 Jevon Carter CHI 3.4 1.1 0.8
23 Torrey Craig CHI 3.3 1.4 0.6
24 E.J. Liddell CHI 2.9 2.2 0.4
25 Liam Robbins MIL 2.7 1.8 0.6
26 Stanley Umude MIL 2.7 1.0 0.4
27 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.6 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.