NBA games

GS @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
99–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS2223272799
LAC27291927102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home LAC
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 32 26 7 6
Andrew Wiggins S 29 22 3 0
Jonathan Kuminga 19 12 2 3
Draymond Green S 32 9 9 7
Buddy Hield 23 8 2 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 20 8 3 2
Lindy Waters III S 29 6 5 1
Moses Moody 16 5 3 1
Kyle Anderson 13 2 2 2
Brandin Podziemski 16 1 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 26 23 1 0
Amir Coffey 29 15 5 1
James Harden S 41 12 6 16
Terance Mann 23 10 5 6
Nicolas Batum 20 9 3 0
Ivica Zubac S 36 8 17 4
Kevin Porter Jr. 16 8 0 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 23 7 3 0
Kris Dunn S 19 7 2 1
Mo Bamba 7 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lindy Waters III · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Lindy Waters III makes 26-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
14%
2 James Harden LAC
12%
3 Andrew Wiggins GS
11%
4 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
10%
5 Norman Powell LAC
10%
6 Stephen Curry GS
10%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Lindy Waters III GS
8%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
35%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
24%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 23.0 5.0 6.5
2 Norman Powell LAC 22.4 3.5 3.5
3 James Harden LAC 22.2 7.9 7.6
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 16.0 11.9 2.0
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 15.3 4.7 2.1
6 Buddy Hield GS 14.7 4.0 1.8
7 Andrew Wiggins GS 14.2 4.5 2.2
8 Draymond Green GS 10.6 5.7 5.0
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.3 4.2 3.1
10 Amir Coffey LAC 10.1 2.8 1.4
11 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.9 3.3 1.5
12 Kris Dunn LAC 9.5 3.3 3.1
13 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 9.5 3.5 3.3
14 Jordan Miller LAC 7.5 2.2 1.1
15 Moses Moody GS 7.2 2.2 1.1
16 Terance Mann LAC 6.9 4.0 1.5
17 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 6.0 4.2 1.8
18 Kyle Anderson GS 6.0 3.4 2.2
19 Bones Hyland LAC 5.3 2.2 0.9
20 Lindy Waters III GS 5.0 1.6 1.2
21 Kobe Brown LAC 5.0 3.8 1.3
22 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.7 2.8 1.1
23 Gary Payton II GS 4.0 2.0 0.8
24 Quinten Post GS 3.3 1.2 0.7
25 Cam Christie LAC 3.3 1.7 0.6
26 Kai Jones LAC 2.8 2.5 0.5
27 Gui Santos GS 1.5 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.