NBA games

ATL @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
109–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL32322520109
SAC31352715108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home SAC
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Andre Hunter 25 24 2 1
Zaccharie Risacher S 26 18 3 2
Clint Capela S 28 14 14 1
Dyson Daniels S 39 14 8 4
Garrison Mathews S 28 9 1 4
Trae Young S 36 7 3 19
Onyeka Okongwu 20 7 2 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 18 6 3 3
David Roddy 7 5 0 0
Kobe Bufkin 12 5 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keon Ellis 33 33 6 1
De'Aaron Fox S 39 28 5 7
Trey Lyles S 38 12 10 4
Kevin Huerter S 39 9 5 3
Jordan McLaughlin 20 8 2 4
Doug McDermott 19 8 1 1
Keegan Murray S 22 7 7 1
Alex Len S 17 2 3 1
Orlando Robinson 7 1 3 1
Colby Jones 3 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zaccharie Risacher · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Zaccharie Risacher makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dyson Daniels ATL
11%
2 Clint Capela ATL
10%
3 Trae Young ATL
10%
4 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
5 Kobe Bufkin ATL
9%
6 De'Aaron Fox SAC
9%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
8 Kevin Huerter SAC
9%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
10 Trey Lyles SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
41%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 29.5 5.0 6.0
2 Trae Young ATL 23.1 3.6 13.4
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.1 10.0 6.4
4 Kobe Bufkin ATL 17.4 3.7 4.2
5 Dyson Daniels ATL 16.0 5.6 3.5
6 Keegan Murray SAC 13.5 8.1 2.0
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 13.4 4.5 1.7
8 Kevin Huerter SAC 13.0 4.2 3.0
9 De'Andre Hunter ATL 12.1 3.7 1.9
10 Clint Capela ATL 10.9 8.0 1.3
11 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 10.2 6.3 1.7
12 Garrison Mathews ATL 8.1 1.8 1.6
13 Trey Lyles SAC 7.1 3.7 1.2
14 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 6.9 2.5 1.2
15 Keon Ellis SAC 6.9 2.3 1.3
16 Keaton Wallace ATL 6.4 2.0 2.1
17 David Roddy ATL 5.9 3.0 1.5
18 Doug McDermott SAC 3.9 1.3 0.7
19 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 3.9 1.4 1.2
20 Mason Jones SAC 3.5 2.0 1.4
21 Alex Len SAC 3.0 2.9 1.0
22 Isaac Jones SAC 3.0 1.8 0.7
23 Colby Jones SAC 1.9 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.