NBA games

ORL @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
109–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL26382025109
PHX2226203199

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home PHX
87% 13%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 39 32 5 8
Anthony Black 33 20 4 9
Goga Bitadze S 31 17 10 1
Jalen Suggs S 30 12 2 1
Moritz Wagner 12 9 6 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 34 9 1 2
Jonathan Isaac 20 7 3 0
Tristan da Silva S 26 3 5 6
Gary Harris 11 0 2 0
Cole Anthony 3 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyus Jones S 32 18 2 8
Devin Booker S 38 17 2 5
Grayson Allen 29 17 4 1
Oso Ighodaro S 32 12 7 2
Josh Okogie 25 11 5 2
Mason Plumlee S 23 8 11 6
Monte Morris 13 8 1 0
Ryan Dunn S 21 5 6 1
Royce O'Neale 20 2 7 0
Bol Bol 6 1 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Suggs · Layup (2 pts) · 11:53 Q1
"Jalen Suggs makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
16%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
14%
3 Jalen Suggs ORL
13%
4 Mason Plumlee PHX
11%
5 Goga Bitadze ORL
10%
6 Tyus Jones PHX
10%
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
9%
8 Ryan Dunn PHX
8%
9 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
10 Moritz Wagner ORL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
56%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 24.6 4.3 7.1
2 Franz Wagner ORL 23.9 6.1 5.5
3 Jalen Suggs ORL 16.3 5.5 4.2
4 Moritz Wagner ORL 12.5 4.3 1.5
5 Tyus Jones PHX 11.9 2.7 5.8
6 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.5 5.6 1.8
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 8.8 3.0 2.0
8 Grayson Allen PHX 8.3 2.6 1.3
9 Anthony Black ORL 8.2 3.3 3.8
10 Josh Okogie PHX 8.0 3.5 1.0
11 Tristan da Silva ORL 7.6 3.6 1.6
12 Goga Bitadze ORL 7.2 6.8 1.5
13 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.6 2.7 0.8
14 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.3 4.7 0.7
15 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.7 6.1 1.6
16 Monte Morris PHX 4.6 1.7 1.3
17 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.5 3.6 0.6
18 Bol Bol PHX 4.4 3.1 0.9
19 Cole Anthony ORL 4.1 2.1 1.4
20 Jett Howard ORL 4.0 1.4 0.5
21 Gary Harris ORL 3.8 1.7 0.7
22 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 3.5 1.0 0.6
23 Damion Lee PHX 3.3 0.9 0.8
24 Cory Joseph ORL 2.6 1.3 0.9
25 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.0 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.