NBA games

HOU @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
100–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU28173520100
MIL27302618101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home MIL
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Fred VanVleet S 35 26 6 5
Jalen Green S 39 21 9 2
Alperen Sengun S 39 18 7 5
Amen Thompson 29 10 7 2
Tari Eason 31 9 14 1
Dillon Brooks S 21 5 4 1
Aaron Holiday 9 5 1 2
Jabari Smith Jr. S 25 4 2 1
Steven Adams 5 2 2 0
Reed Sheppard 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brook Lopez S 40 27 10 1
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 36 20 13 4
Damian Lillard S 36 18 4 10
Gary Trent Jr. 24 12 1 0
Bobby Portis 21 11 4 1
Delon Wright 23 6 4 2
AJ Green 29 5 5 2
Taurean Prince S 27 2 1 1
Andre Jackson Jr. S 5 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 14-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
20%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
3 Damian Lillard MIL
11%
4 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
5 Jalen Green HOU
8%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
8 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
9 Delon Wright MIL
6%
10 Taurean Prince MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
94%
Jumper
1%
Layup
3%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.0 11.3 7.5
2 Damian Lillard MIL 24.6 4.2 6.2
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 19.6 10.5 5.7
4 Jalen Green HOU 17.1 5.0 3.1
5 Fred VanVleet HOU 15.4 4.8 6.2
6 Tari Eason HOU 14.1 6.7 1.5
7 Amen Thompson HOU 13.1 7.9 2.6
8 Bobby Portis MIL 13.1 7.8 1.3
9 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.6 3.6 1.8
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.9 6.1 1.1
11 Brook Lopez MIL 10.5 5.2 1.5
12 Taurean Prince MIL 9.6 4.4 2.1
13 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 7.3 1.8 1.3
14 AJ Green MIL 6.9 1.7 1.1
15 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 6.2 2.8 1.9
16 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.3 2.2 1.6
17 Reed Sheppard HOU 5.2 1.9 1.3
18 Jock Landale HOU 4.7 3.4 0.9
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.6 1.5 1.1
20 Nate Williams HOU 4.2 1.4 0.6
21 Delon Wright MIL 4.2 1.8 1.9
22 Steven Adams HOU 3.9 3.9 1.2
23 Jeff Green HOU 3.8 1.8 0.7
24 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.4 2.5 0.8
25 Jack McVeigh HOU 3.4 1.4 0.5
26 AJ Johnson MIL 3.1 1.0 1.9
27 Tyler Smith MIL 2.5 1.6 0.3
28 Stanley Umude MIL 2.3 0.8 0.3
29 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.1 0.7 0.4
30 Chris Livingston MIL 1.6 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.