NBA games

IND @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
119–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND27302537119
TOR34352734130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home TOR
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin S 32 28 5 2
Pascal Siakam S 39 25 10 5
Obi Toppin 31 19 2 5
Tyrese Haliburton S 39 16 3 4
T.J. McConnell 27 10 3 7
Quenton Jackson 19 9 1 3
Jarace Walker S 25 6 4 2
Johnny Furphy 8 3 0 0
Enrique Freeman S 19 3 4 1
Tristen Newton 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 36 39 9 5
Jakob Poeltl S 38 30 15 2
Gradey Dick S 35 15 4 3
Davion Mitchell S 33 11 0 4
Ochai Agbaji S 33 11 4 6
Jamison Battle 11 9 1 1
Jonathan Mogbo 13 4 3 1
Jamal Shead 14 4 0 2
Chris Boucher 18 4 7 0
Garrett Temple 11 3 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jakob Poeltl · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Jakob Poeltl makes dunk (RJ Barrett assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
2 Jakob Poeltl TOR
11%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR
11%
5 Gradey Dick TOR
10%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
7 Myles Turner IND
9%
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR
8%
9 Bennedict Mathurin IND
6%
10 Davion Mitchell TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
38%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 24.3 6.3 6.9
2 Pascal Siakam IND 23.1 6.0 3.8
3 Gradey Dick TOR 21.0 3.8 3.3
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND 20.9 7.6 2.4
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR 19.3 12.0 3.1
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND 18.8 4.1 9.8
7 Myles Turner IND 18.7 6.6 1.8
8 Immanuel Quickley TOR 14.9 2.7 5.2
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR 13.2 4.6 2.4
10 Chris Boucher TOR 11.6 4.7 1.3
11 Davion Mitchell TOR 10.6 3.5 5.9
12 Obi Toppin IND 9.7 3.5 1.4
13 T.J. McConnell IND 9.3 3.1 4.1
14 Ben Sheppard IND 7.1 2.9 1.6
15 Tristen Newton IND 6.5 2.1 3.6
16 Jarace Walker IND 6.3 3.7 1.6
17 Jamison Battle TOR 5.2 1.7 1.0
18 Quenton Jackson IND 4.9 2.1 1.3
19 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 4.8 4.2 1.4
20 Jamal Shead TOR 4.8 1.4 2.5
21 Enrique Freeman IND 3.9 2.9 0.8
22 Bruno Fernando TOR 3.8 3.3 1.1
23 Johnny Furphy IND 2.3 1.4 0.5
24 Garrett Temple TOR 2.1 0.9 0.6
25 James Johnson IND 1.6 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.