NBA games

WSH @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
106–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH27272131106
NY40333625134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home NY
10% 90%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonas Valanciunas 18 18 8 3
Bub Carrington S 32 18 4 2
Corey Kispert 31 18 6 2
Kyle Kuzma S 24 11 8 2
Anthony Gill 15 9 3 0
Jordan Poole S 27 8 4 5
Alex Sarr S 24 8 4 3
Malcolm Brogdon S 19 7 1 1
Jared Butler 6 4 0 4
Johnny Davis 8 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 30 26 1 11
Karl-Anthony Towns S 25 24 12 3
Cameron Payne 23 17 2 7
OG Anunoby S 30 16 5 2
Mikal Bridges S 35 14 3 5
Josh Hart S 32 14 6 3
Pacome Dadiet 18 9 3 2
Jericho Sims 19 7 7 0
Tyler Kolek 17 5 0 3
Ariel Hukporti 6 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Malcolm Brogdon · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Malcolm Brogdon makes 11-foot two point shot (Alexandre Sarr assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
16%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
13%
3 Jordan Poole WSH
12%
4 Kyle Kuzma WSH
11%
5 OG Anunoby NY
11%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
7 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
8 Bub Carrington WSH
8%
9 Josh Hart NY
8%
10 Corey Kispert WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
45%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 28.0 12.9 4.4
2 Jalen Brunson NY 26.2 3.6 7.9
3 Jordan Poole WSH 23.0 3.3 5.2
4 OG Anunoby NY 20.8 5.9 2.9
5 Kyle Kuzma WSH 17.3 6.0 2.9
6 Mikal Bridges NY 17.2 4.7 3.8
7 Josh Hart NY 15.5 8.8 6.9
8 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 11.4 7.3 2.5
9 Alex Sarr WSH 11.3 5.9 2.4
10 Bub Carrington WSH 11.3 4.5 5.3
11 Corey Kispert WSH 11.1 3.0 1.6
12 Kyshawn George WSH 10.5 4.2 2.8
13 Cameron Payne NY 7.3 2.1 2.7
14 Jared Butler WSH 5.2 1.5 2.1
15 Pacome Dadiet NY 5.2 2.3 0.8
16 Marvin Bagley III WSH 4.5 3.1 0.9
17 Tyler Kolek NY 4.5 1.5 1.5
18 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 4.0 1.7 0.6
19 Jericho Sims NY 3.6 4.0 0.9
20 Johnny Davis WSH 3.4 1.7 0.5
21 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.2 3.2 0.8
22 Anthony Gill WSH 3.0 1.2 0.7
23 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.4 2.0 0.2
24 Matt Ryan NY 2.1 0.5 0.4
25 Jacob Toppin NY 1.7 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.