NBA games

PHI @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
89–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI3323161789
MIA25283518106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home MIA
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jared McCain S 37 20 4 4
Paul George S 33 18 6 5
Caleb Martin S 29 12 5 0
Joel Embiid S 31 11 8 5
Kelly Oubre Jr. 27 8 5 1
Andre Drummond 12 6 5 1
Eric Gordon 14 5 1 2
Ricky Council IV 9 4 1 0
Guerschon Yabusele 10 3 4 1
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 20 2 2 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 34 30 10 5
Tyler Herro S 32 18 5 5
Duncan Robinson S 22 13 2 3
Dru Smith 25 10 6 3
Haywood Highsmith S 32 9 1 1
Alec Burks 19 7 6 3
Bam Adebayo S 32 5 13 3
Pelle Larsson 8 4 0 0
Josh Richardson 14 4 0 1
Nikola Jovic 8 3 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul George · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Paul George makes 25-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
14%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
3 Jared McCain PHI
13%
4 Paul George PHI
12%
5 Caleb Martin PHI
9%
6 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
7 Terry Rozier MIA
8%
8 Haywood Highsmith MIA
8%
9 Kevin Love MIA
7%
10 Kyle Lowry PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
22%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 24.1 4.9 5.5
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.0 9.2 4.5
3 Paul George PHI 18.7 5.0 4.7
4 Jared McCain PHI 17.3 2.6 3.0
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA 16.3 4.6 4.1
6 Terry Rozier MIA 12.5 3.8 3.5
7 Caleb Martin PHI 12.2 5.2 2.7
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 11.7 4.9 1.5
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 9.4 5.6 2.8
10 Andre Drummond PHI 9.1 8.8 1.2
11 Duncan Robinson MIA 8.7 2.6 1.7
12 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 8.5 4.7 1.8
13 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.3 3.3 1.2
14 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.7 3.5 1.2
15 Kyle Lowry PHI 6.5 2.6 3.1
16 Eric Gordon PHI 5.8 1.6 1.4
17 Josh Richardson MIA 5.4 1.9 1.5
18 Kevin Love MIA 5.1 2.8 0.8
19 KJ Martin PHI 4.4 2.4 0.7
20 Alec Burks MIA 4.4 1.5 1.3
21 Pelle Larsson MIA 4.2 1.3 1.1
22 Reggie Jackson PHI 3.6 0.9 1.5
23 Kel'el Ware MIA 3.6 2.2 0.5
24 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 3.3 1.4 1.1
25 Ricky Council IV PHI 3.0 1.1 0.7
26 Thomas Bryant MIA 2.9 2.3 0.6
27 Dru Smith MIA 2.3 1.3 1.3
28 Adem Bona PHI 2.0 1.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.