NBA games

CHI @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
122–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI36292829122
DET25322827112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home DET
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 35 29 12 3
Zach LaVine S 35 25 6 5
Coby White S 33 25 4 4
Josh Giddey S 29 11 8 10
Ayo Dosunmu 33 9 1 1
Jalen Smith 13 8 5 2
Patrick Williams S 33 8 5 2
Julian Phillips 15 5 4 1
Dalen Terry 12 2 1 0
Matas Buzelis 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 36 26 6 10
Malik Beasley 30 21 4 2
Tobias Harris S 32 16 2 0
Jalen Duren S 30 15 22 3
Jaden Ivey S 32 12 3 5
Isaiah Stewart 19 7 4 3
Simone Fontecchio 15 6 2 0
Marcus Sasser 6 5 0 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 30 2 1 3
Ronald Holland II 9 2 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Duren · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jalen Duren makes 2-foot layup (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
2 Tobias Harris DET
11%
3 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
4 Zach LaVine CHI
9%
5 Jalen Duren DET
9%
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
7 Patrick Williams CHI
8%
8 Josh Giddey CHI
8%
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
10 Coby White CHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
40%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.0 8.4 10.4
2 Zach LaVine CHI 21.9 4.9 4.3
3 Jaden Ivey DET 21.1 5.1 5.5
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.9 9.7 3.3
5 Coby White CHI 20.9 3.2 5.0
6 Malik Beasley DET 17.3 3.5 2.5
7 Tobias Harris DET 16.2 7.6 3.3
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 13.8 4.1 3.8
9 Josh Giddey CHI 12.7 5.4 5.7
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 12.2 2.0 2.3
11 Patrick Williams CHI 11.9 4.6 2.6
12 Jalen Duren DET 9.9 10.3 2.5
13 Isaiah Stewart DET 9.0 7.0 1.7
14 Simone Fontecchio DET 7.1 3.6 1.4
15 Ronald Holland II DET 6.6 3.0 1.0
16 Jalen Smith CHI 5.8 4.6 0.7
17 Dalen Terry CHI 5.6 2.6 1.2
18 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 5.5 3.1 1.0
19 Julian Phillips CHI 4.7 2.2 0.7
20 Marcus Sasser DET 4.5 1.7 1.3
21 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 4.3 2.0 1.2
22 Paul Reed DET 4.3 3.0 1.0
23 Chris Duarte CHI 4.0 1.5 0.7
24 Matas Buzelis CHI 3.8 2.6 0.5
25 Torrey Craig CHI 3.7 1.7 0.5
26 Jevon Carter CHI 3.7 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.