NBA games

DAL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
121–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL39273124121
OKC34243427119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home OKC
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
P.J. Washington S 28 27 17 2
Kyrie Irving S 36 23 1 6
Jaden Hardy 24 13 3 1
Naji Marshall 27 13 4 3
Daniel Gafford 18 11 12 0
Spencer Dinwiddie 17 10 3 1
Quentin Grimes S 21 10 3 2
Dereck Lively II S 26 6 5 3
Klay Thompson S 25 5 3 0
Maxi Kleber 14 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 36 2 8
Jalen Williams S 35 27 5 5
Luguentz Dort S 36 18 5 3
Dillon Jones 16 12 2 3
Aaron Wiggins S 25 7 5 0
Kenrich Williams 18 6 4 2
Isaiah Joe S 26 6 2 4
Cason Wallace 25 4 2 1
Ajay Mitchell 19 3 1 2
Ousmane Dieng 2 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
P.J. Washington · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"P.J. Washington makes 7-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
20%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
13%
3 Dereck Lively II DAL
12%
4 Kyrie Irving DAL
11%
5 Isaiah Joe OKC
10%
6 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
7 Cason Wallace OKC
9%
8 Maxi Kleber DAL
9%
9 Klay Thompson DAL
8%
10 P.J. Washington DAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
55%
Jumper
14%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.9 5.0 6.6
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.8 5.5 5.6
3 Jalen Williams OKC 22.4 6.5 5.4
4 Daniel Gafford DAL 13.0 7.2 1.2
5 Klay Thompson DAL 12.5 3.5 2.1
6 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.8 4.5 2.0
7 Naji Marshall DAL 11.0 4.1 2.7
8 P.J. Washington DAL 10.0 7.2 1.6
9 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.9 3.8 2.4
10 Isaiah Joe OKC 9.4 3.7 1.7
11 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.3 7.8 1.7
12 Cason Wallace OKC 7.9 3.3 1.8
13 Ajay Mitchell OKC 6.5 2.1 1.7
14 Quentin Grimes DAL 6.1 3.0 1.2
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.1 1.8 1.3
16 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 4.9 1.7 1.6
17 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.7 2.9 1.1
18 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.7 2.8 0.7
19 Adam Flagler OKC 4.6 1.4 0.7
20 Brandon Williams DAL 4.2 1.4 0.9
21 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.1 2.4 0.8
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.7 2.0 0.5
23 Dillon Jones OKC 3.1 2.2 0.7
24 Malevy Leons OKC 3.1 2.2 0.6
25 Dwight Powell DAL 3.0 3.0 0.8
26 Markieff Morris DAL 2.7 2.1 0.6
27 Branden Carlson OKC 2.6 1.6 0.6
28 Kessler Edwards DAL 1.6 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.