NBA games

HOU @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
143–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU27414035143
CHI26262629107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home CHI
76% 24%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Fred VanVleet S 28 28 7 7
Alperen Sengun S 26 20 10 11
Jalen Green S 23 18 4 1
Amen Thompson 22 16 11 5
Dillon Brooks S 28 15 3 3
Reed Sheppard 19 12 2 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 24 10 8 1
Jock Landale 16 5 8 2
Tari Eason 18 4 6 0
Jae'Sean Tate 6 4 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 26 15 5 1
Talen Horton-Tucker 10 12 4 2
Ayo Dosunmu 24 9 2 6
Nikola Vucevic S 25 9 6 2
Josh Giddey S 21 9 9 5
Coby White S 25 8 2 4
Jevon Carter 14 8 3 2
Matas Buzelis 16 8 3 0
Patrick Williams S 16 7 1 1
Chris Duarte 12 6 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 14-foot jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
13%
3 Jalen Green HOU
11%
4 Coby White CHI
11%
5 Zach LaVine CHI
10%
6 Patrick Williams CHI
9%
7 Josh Giddey CHI
8%
8 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
10 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
31%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine CHI 22.9 5.0 4.7
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI 21.8 9.7 3.7
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.1 11.1 5.4
4 Coby White CHI 20.0 3.0 5.2
5 Jalen Green HOU 19.9 4.9 3.6
6 Tari Eason HOU 14.8 6.6 1.7
7 Fred VanVleet HOU 14.5 4.5 6.4
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 14.0 4.5 3.8
9 Josh Giddey CHI 13.3 5.6 6.0
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.8 6.1 1.3
11 Amen Thompson HOU 12.7 7.3 2.4
12 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.4 3.8 1.8
13 Patrick Williams CHI 11.9 5.2 2.6
14 Jalen Smith CHI 6.4 4.4 0.9
15 Dalen Terry CHI 5.4 2.4 1.2
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.0 1.6 1.2
17 Julian Phillips CHI 5.0 2.3 0.7
18 Jock Landale HOU 4.8 3.1 1.0
19 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.4 1.8 1.5
20 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 4.4 1.8 1.0
21 Cam Whitmore HOU 4.3 1.4 0.8
22 Chris Duarte CHI 3.8 1.7 0.7
23 Jack McVeigh HOU 3.7 1.7 0.7
24 Matas Buzelis CHI 3.7 2.4 0.5
25 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.5 2.5 0.8
26 Nate Williams HOU 3.0 0.7 0.5
27 Jeff Green HOU 2.9 1.1 0.5
28 Jevon Carter CHI 2.3 0.6 0.4
29 Torrey Craig CHI 2.2 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.