NBA games

BKN @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
104–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN29282423104
NY30303519114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home NY
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cameron Johnson S 31 22 5 5
Cam Thomas S 33 16 5 3
Dorian Finney-Smith S 28 16 4 2
Jalen Wilson 25 15 6 0
Noah Clowney 17 13 2 1
Dennis Schroder S 31 8 1 6
Ziaire Williams 24 7 3 1
Trendon Watford 13 4 3 3
Tyrese Martin 1 3 1 0
Keon Johnson 11 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 30 26 15 6
OG Anunoby S 40 24 8 0
Mikal Bridges S 45 21 6 1
Josh Hart S 46 20 8 8
Jalen Brunson S 34 12 5 10
Cameron Payne 17 9 0 6
Jericho Sims 18 2 4 1
Pacome Dadiet 10 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
13%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
13%
3 OG Anunoby NY
10%
4 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
6 Cameron Johnson BKN
8%
7 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
8%
8 Dennis Schroder BKN
8%
9 Josh Hart NY
7%
10 Ben Simmons BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
41%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 26.4 12.1 3.5
2 Jalen Brunson NY 25.8 3.4 7.4
3 Cam Thomas BKN 23.9 3.2 3.8
4 Dennis Schroder BKN 19.1 3.3 6.1
5 OG Anunoby NY 18.1 5.2 2.9
6 Cameron Johnson BKN 17.6 4.1 2.9
7 Mikal Bridges NY 17.4 4.6 3.7
8 Josh Hart NY 14.4 9.6 6.2
9 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.5 4.2 1.9
10 Ziaire Williams BKN 10.1 4.6 1.4
11 Miles McBride NY 10.1 2.8 2.6
12 Jalen Wilson BKN 8.9 3.4 2.1
13 Cameron Payne NY 8.2 2.4 2.7
14 Ben Simmons BKN 7.3 5.9 5.9
15 Noah Clowney BKN 6.5 2.9 1.0
16 Keon Johnson BKN 5.8 3.3 1.2
17 Pacome Dadiet NY 5.2 2.1 0.6
18 Tyler Kolek NY 4.7 1.7 1.4
19 Shake Milton BKN 3.5 1.4 1.2
20 Tyrese Martin BKN 3.3 1.2 0.6
21 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.2 3.1 0.7
22 Jericho Sims NY 2.9 3.4 0.7
23 Matt Ryan NY 2.1 0.7 0.5
24 Yongxi Cui BKN 1.5 0.6 0.3
25 Jacob Toppin NY 1.2 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.