NBA games

ATL @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
110–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL33311729110
POR21353820114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home POR
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 38 29 5 8
Jalen Johnson S 37 25 4 4
Dyson Daniels S 36 12 8 5
Onyeka Okongwu 28 11 11 3
Zaccharie Risacher S 21 11 4 2
Vit Krejci 21 8 2 3
Clint Capela S 20 8 8 3
Garrison Mathews 11 6 1 0
Larry Nance Jr. 11 0 3 0
Keaton Wallace 17 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 32 32 2 5
Dalano Banton 26 23 4 4
Robert Williams III 25 14 8 2
Deni Avdija 25 12 8 4
Jerami Grant S 28 9 0 1
Scoot Henderson S 30 6 1 10
Donovan Clingan S 22 6 8 0
Kris Murray 8 6 2 0
Toumani Camara S 35 3 4 5
Rayan Rupert 10 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trae Young · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Trae Young makes 25-foot three point shot (Zaccharie Risacher assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
15%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
13%
3 Deandre Ayton POR
11%
4 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
5 Jerami Grant POR
9%
6 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
7 Clint Capela ATL
8%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
9 Toumani Camara POR
7%
10 Scoot Henderson POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
22%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 23.7 3.4 11.7
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 23.3 10.6 6.6
3 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.1 5.4 3.4
4 Jerami Grant POR 16.3 4.0 2.5
5 Shaedon Sharpe POR 16.3 3.8 2.1
6 Deandre Ayton POR 14.1 10.2 1.6
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 13.1 4.6 1.9
8 Scoot Henderson POR 12.7 3.2 5.0
9 De'Andre Hunter ATL 12.6 4.0 2.0
10 Clint Capela ATL 12.3 8.1 1.4
11 Toumani Camara POR 11.0 4.8 2.0
12 Robert Williams III POR 10.7 6.3 1.7
13 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 10.3 6.3 1.8
14 Deni Avdija POR 10.3 5.2 3.0
15 Garrison Mathews ATL 9.7 2.0 1.8
16 Dalano Banton POR 8.7 2.1 2.4
17 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 8.1 3.3 1.4
18 Keaton Wallace ATL 6.2 2.2 1.8
19 David Roddy ATL 6.1 3.3 1.6
20 Donovan Clingan POR 5.8 5.5 0.8
21 Kris Murray POR 4.5 2.5 1.0
22 Vit Krejci ATL 4.2 1.6 1.9
23 Rayan Rupert POR 4.0 1.5 0.7
24 Jabari Walker POR 3.2 2.2 0.7
25 Duop Reath POR 3.2 1.4 0.8
26 Taze Moore POR 1.7 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.