NBA games

DEN @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
90–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN2518212690
MEM28272921105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MEM
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julian Strawther 25 19 4 3
Jamal Murray S 37 13 6 7
Christian Braun S 34 13 4 4
Russell Westbrook 23 12 3 3
Dario Saric S 32 10 10 3
Michael Porter Jr. S 27 10 3 1
Peyton Watson S 28 7 5 2
DeAndre Jordan 14 4 2 0
Vlatko Cancar 13 2 1 0
Trey Alexander 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 31 20 6 2
Jaylen Wells S 26 15 1 0
Desmond Bane S 29 11 11 7
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 26 10 3 4
Jay Huff 12 10 1 1
Brandon Clarke S 22 8 7 0
Luke Kennard 26 8 3 4
Zach Edey 14 7 7 2
Jake LaRavia 20 7 2 4
Santi Aldama 20 6 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
3 Christian Braun DEN
11%
4 Santi Aldama MEM
11%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
6 Brandon Clarke MEM
10%
7 Dario Saric DEN
9%
8 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
9 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
8%
10 Peyton Watson DEN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
43%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.6 6.2 2.0
2 Desmond Bane MEM 19.0 5.1 4.0
3 Jamal Murray DEN 18.7 3.9 5.4
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 18.5 6.1 3.0
5 Christian Braun DEN 15.7 4.9 2.1
6 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 13.8 4.1 5.9
7 Jaylen Wells MEM 13.6 3.9 2.2
8 Zach Edey MEM 13.0 8.0 1.5
9 Santi Aldama MEM 12.4 7.6 3.5
10 Russell Westbrook DEN 12.1 3.9 5.6
11 Jake LaRavia MEM 11.7 5.2 4.3
12 Peyton Watson DEN 9.9 3.3 1.2
13 Julian Strawther DEN 9.1 2.7 1.6
14 Jay Huff MEM 7.7 3.0 0.9
15 Luke Kennard MEM 6.6 2.2 3.0
16 Brandon Clarke MEM 5.6 3.3 0.9
17 John Konchar MEM 5.4 4.2 1.5
18 Dario Saric DEN 5.2 3.3 1.3
19 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.9 1.8 0.7
20 Vlatko Cancar DEN 3.9 1.8 1.1
21 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.6 2.4 0.8
22 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.2 4.6 0.7
23 PJ Hall DEN 3.2 1.2 0.7
24 Trey Alexander DEN 2.4 1.3 1.1
25 Yuki Kawamura MEM 2.3 0.6 1.2
26 Colin Castleton MEM 1.9 1.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.