NBA games

DET @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
124–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET28373722124
WSH18352625104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home WSH
87% 13%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Ivey S 30 28 4 8
Malik Beasley S 29 26 3 1
Cade Cunningham S 31 21 10 10
Tobias Harris S 28 12 9 3
Jalen Duren S 18 11 10 1
Isaiah Stewart 25 9 6 1
Marcus Sasser 13 7 0 0
Simone Fontecchio 22 6 1 1
Wendell Moore Jr. 24 4 5 2
Ronald Holland II 15 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 27 22 1 5
Kyle Kuzma S 29 22 6 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 26 15 4 0
Jonas Valanciunas 20 13 10 2
Bub Carrington S 25 11 3 3
Corey Kispert 22 8 3 1
Alex Sarr S 24 4 3 3
Marvin Bagley III 4 4 2 0
Jared Butler 4 3 0 0
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 4 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Kuzma · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Kyle Kuzma makes 15-foot two point shot (Carlton Carrington assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
2 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
11%
3 Tobias Harris DET
10%
4 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
5 Kyle Kuzma WSH
10%
6 Jalen Duren DET
8%
7 Jordan Poole WSH
8%
8 Alex Sarr WSH
8%
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
7%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
44%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 25.9 8.0 9.6
2 Jordan Poole WSH 22.6 3.4 5.1
3 Jaden Ivey DET 21.3 5.1 4.5
4 Tobias Harris DET 17.1 8.3 3.0
5 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 16.2 6.0 2.7
6 Malik Beasley DET 15.8 3.6 2.4
7 Kyle Kuzma WSH 15.8 6.0 3.0
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 12.8 2.1 2.3
9 Alex Sarr WSH 12.0 6.3 2.1
10 Bub Carrington WSH 11.1 4.3 5.4
11 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 11.1 7.8 2.2
12 Corey Kispert WSH 10.9 3.1 1.6
13 Jalen Duren DET 10.5 10.2 2.6
14 Kyshawn George WSH 10.5 4.5 2.6
15 Isaiah Stewart DET 9.0 7.8 1.8
16 Ronald Holland II DET 6.9 3.2 0.9
17 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.6 3.4 1.2
18 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 5.3 2.8 0.8
19 Jared Butler WSH 4.6 1.1 2.5
20 Marcus Sasser DET 4.5 1.7 1.3
21 Paul Reed DET 3.9 2.6 1.1
22 Johnny Davis WSH 3.9 1.7 0.7
23 Marvin Bagley III WSH 3.0 2.8 0.5
24 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 2.9 1.3 0.3
25 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.3 2.0 0.2
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.0 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.