NBA games

CHA @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
114–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA28314015114
CLE38343026128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home CLE
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 35 31 1 12
Miles Bridges S 27 19 8 8
Grant Williams S 35 15 9 3
Brandon Miller S 35 15 5 4
Josh Green S 29 15 4 2
Vasilije Micic 14 9 0 2
Cody Martin 25 5 6 2
Seth Curry 9 3 1 0
Moussa Diabate 12 2 4 0
Tidjane Salaun 15 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 30 25 5 12
Ty Jerome S 32 24 2 8
Evan Mobley S 34 23 11 0
Jarrett Allen S 31 21 15 0
Georges Niang 26 13 2 1
Craig Porter Jr. 21 7 4 2
Isaac Okoro S 14 6 0 1
Caris LeVert 32 4 4 2
Dean Wade 15 3 4 0
JT Thor 2 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ty Jerome · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Ty Jerome makes 7-foot two point shot (Darius Garland assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
18%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
4 Darius Garland CLE
10%
5 Taj Gibson CHA
8%
6 Georges Niang CLE
8%
7 Isaac Okoro CLE
7%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
7%
9 Grant Williams CHA
7%
10 Josh Green CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
20%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 26.6 5.0 6.5
2 Darius Garland CLE 23.5 3.2 7.6
3 Evan Mobley CLE 18.9 8.7 2.7
4 Brandon Miller CHA 17.8 4.1 3.8
5 Miles Bridges CHA 14.8 6.1 2.7
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.1 10.7 2.0
7 Caris LeVert CLE 12.4 3.3 5.0
8 Grant Williams CHA 10.6 4.6 2.0
9 Cody Martin CHA 10.5 3.7 2.1
10 Ty Jerome CLE 8.7 2.5 3.4
11 Georges Niang CLE 8.4 3.3 1.4
12 Isaac Okoro CLE 7.7 2.5 1.6
13 Josh Green CHA 6.7 2.4 1.5
14 Dean Wade CLE 6.4 3.6 1.8
15 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.5 7.4 0.8
16 Seth Curry CHA 5.5 2.0 0.8
17 Tidjane Salaun CHA 4.6 3.3 1.1
18 Vasilije Micic CHA 3.7 2.0 1.6
19 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 3.3 1.0 0.8
20 JT Thor CLE 3.3 1.8 0.4
21 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.2 1.8 0.7
22 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.2 2.1 0.6
23 Taj Gibson CHA 2.7 3.0 0.2
24 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 2.7 1.7 0.8
25 Luke Travers CLE 2.0 1.8 0.7
26 Jared Rhoden CHA 1.8 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.