NBA games

MIA @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
110–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA20292635110
IND28243334119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home IND
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 38 28 4 4
Bam Adebayo S 40 24 8 2
Duncan Robinson 31 20 4 4
Nikola Jovic 31 14 3 2
Terry Rozier S 27 9 4 1
Kevin Love S 12 8 6 0
Josh Richardson 24 5 2 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 15 2 3 4
Haywood Highsmith S 22 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 40 34 9 1
Pascal Siakam S 35 23 4 3
Bennedict Mathurin S 37 21 12 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 38 16 3 13
Obi Toppin 18 8 3 2
T.J. McConnell 23 8 3 5
Jarace Walker 16 6 7 3
Ben Sheppard S 26 3 3 1
Quenton Jackson 7 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bennedict Mathurin · Layup (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Bennedict Mathurin makes 4-foot layup (Tyrese Haliburton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA
11%
3 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
4 Myles Turner IND
9%
5 Pascal Siakam IND
8%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
8 Haywood Highsmith MIA
6%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
6%
10 Terry Rozier MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
34%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 24.5 5.0 5.7
2 Pascal Siakam IND 22.0 6.2 3.8
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.8 4.3 9.4
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.2 10.1 4.5
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 18.4 6.8 2.3
6 Jimmy Butler III MIA 16.8 4.8 4.1
7 Myles Turner IND 16.6 6.6 1.7
8 Terry Rozier MIA 13.7 4.0 3.8
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 10.6 5.8 2.8
10 Obi Toppin IND 9.6 3.5 1.5
11 Haywood Highsmith MIA 9.3 3.2 1.2
12 T.J. McConnell IND 8.9 3.0 3.9
13 Duncan Robinson MIA 8.1 2.5 1.4
14 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.3 3.6 1.3
15 Ben Sheppard IND 7.2 2.7 1.5
16 Andrew Nembhard IND 6.7 1.9 3.3
17 Aaron Nesmith IND 6.5 2.5 0.9
18 Jarace Walker IND 6.0 3.4 1.3
19 Quenton Jackson IND 5.3 2.1 1.4
20 Kevin Love MIA 5.1 2.5 0.8
21 Josh Richardson MIA 5.1 1.9 1.4
22 Alec Burks MIA 4.5 1.5 1.3
23 Pelle Larsson MIA 4.4 1.3 1.2
24 Enrique Freeman IND 4.4 3.2 0.9
25 Kel'el Ware MIA 4.3 2.6 0.6
26 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.3 2.5 0.5
27 Johnny Furphy IND 2.7 1.7 0.5
28 Dru Smith MIA 2.5 1.3 1.3
29 James Johnson IND 1.5 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.