NBA games

PHX @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
117–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX31332627117
MIN22323234120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home MIN
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 40 44 6 7
Grayson Allen 24 18 5 1
Tyus Jones S 37 13 5 11
Oso Ighodaro 26 11 3 1
Royce O'Neale 25 7 4 2
Josh Okogie 16 6 2 0
Mason Plumlee S 29 6 8 4
Monte Morris 11 5 1 2
Jusuf Nurkic S 14 5 7 1
Ryan Dunn S 18 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 34 35 4 7
Anthony Edwards S 39 24 4 6
Donte DiVincenzo 26 15 1 3
Naz Reid 22 13 4 1
Jaden McDaniels S 27 11 3 2
Rudy Gobert S 37 11 10 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 20 8 2 2
Mike Conley S 30 3 4 3
Rob Dillingham 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jusuf Nurkic · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Jusuf Nurkic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
15%
2 Julius Randle MIN
14%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
4 Tyus Jones PHX
9%
5 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
6 Josh Okogie PHX
9%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
8 Mike Conley MIN
8%
9 Ryan Dunn PHX
7%
10 Anthony Edwards MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
50%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.2 5.0 4.3
2 Devin Booker PHX 24.1 4.1 6.8
3 Julius Randle MIN 21.9 6.4 4.5
4 Naz Reid MIN 14.9 4.8 2.0
5 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.0 10.4 2.0
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.9 4.4 1.7
7 Tyus Jones PHX 11.3 2.8 5.6
8 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.6 6.0 1.9
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.3 3.1 3.0
10 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.1 9.5 1.3
11 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 9.4 3.8 3.6
12 Mike Conley MIN 9.3 3.1 4.9
13 Josh Okogie PHX 8.3 3.6 1.1
14 Ryan Dunn PHX 7.5 2.9 0.9
15 Grayson Allen PHX 7.4 2.2 1.1
16 Luka Garza MIN 7.3 3.3 0.5
17 Bol Bol PHX 5.1 3.4 0.9
18 Josh Minott MIN 5.1 2.3 0.9
19 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.9 5.5 1.2
20 Monte Morris PHX 4.8 1.9 1.3
21 Rob Dillingham MIN 4.7 1.7 2.5
22 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.2 3.6 0.6
23 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 4.2 1.4 0.7
24 Damion Lee PHX 4.1 1.4 0.9
25 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 2.9 1.2 0.9
26 PJ Dozier MIN 2.1 0.7 0.6
27 Joe Ingles MIN 1.7 1.0 1.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.