NBA games

SA @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
93–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA2823182493
DAL23323817110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home DAL
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach Collins S 26 20 6 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 17 14 6 2
Julian Champagnie S 25 13 2 0
Stephon Castle S 28 12 4 3
Chris Paul S 25 11 5 3
Keldon Johnson 21 8 5 2
Blake Wesley 18 6 1 1
Harrison Barnes S 24 4 3 2
Tre Jones 19 3 3 4
Malaki Branham 9 2 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 28 22 8 6
Daniel Gafford 18 22 7 1
Luka Doncic S 28 16 6 6
Jaden Hardy 19 12 3 1
Klay Thompson S 19 9 0 0
Dereck Lively II S 21 7 4 2
Naji Marshall 18 6 3 4
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 7 5 5 0
Quentin Grimes 22 5 4 3
Maxi Kleber S 12 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Klay Thompson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Klay Thompson makes 12-foot two point shot (Kyrie Irving assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Klay Thompson DAL
12%
2 Dereck Lively II DAL
10%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
10%
4 Chris Paul SA
10%
5 Luka Doncic DAL
9%
6 Julian Champagnie SA
9%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
8 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
9 Quentin Grimes DAL
8%
10 Stephon Castle SA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
45%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 27.2 7.2 8.1
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.9 4.7 5.4
3 Klay Thompson DAL 13.1 3.6 2.3
4 Keldon Johnson SA 12.9 5.7 1.9
5 Chris Paul SA 12.8 3.9 9.0
6 Daniel Gafford DAL 11.9 6.4 1.1
7 Stephon Castle SA 10.9 3.2 2.5
8 Naji Marshall DAL 10.7 4.1 2.7
9 Julian Champagnie SA 10.2 5.1 1.8
10 Harrison Barnes SA 10.1 4.0 1.6
11 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.2 7.5 2.0
12 P.J. Washington DAL 9.2 6.2 1.3
13 Malaki Branham SA 8.5 2.1 1.4
14 Zach Collins SA 6.0 2.8 2.3
15 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 5.8 1.7 1.7
16 Quentin Grimes DAL 5.2 2.7 1.0
17 Tre Jones SA 5.0 2.1 3.7
18 Blake Wesley SA 4.5 1.5 1.6
19 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.4 2.7 0.7
20 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.3 1.9 0.9
21 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.2 1.4 1.2
22 Sidy Cissoko SA 3.2 1.7 0.7
23 Dwight Powell DAL 3.0 2.7 0.8
24 Charles Bassey SA 2.9 2.3 0.3
25 Brandon Williams DAL 2.7 0.6 0.7
26 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.5 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.