NBA games

LAL @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
104–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL21252929104
NO3026152899

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home NO
82% 18%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 37 31 14 1
Dalton Knecht S 37 27 7 2
LeBron James S 37 21 7 5
Austin Reaves S 41 10 2 7
D'Angelo Russell 21 7 1 5
Christian Koloko 11 6 6 1
Max Christie S 30 2 3 1
Gabe Vincent 22 0 2 2
Armel Traore 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 38 32 4 8
Jaylen Nowell 35 16 6 3
Brandon Boston S 36 12 8 5
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl S 33 10 9 1
Trey Jemison III 19 8 2 0
Yves Missi S 29 8 7 3
Javonte Green S 31 7 6 2
Jamal Cain 21 6 8 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram NO
17%
2 Trey Murphy III NO
10%
3 Anthony Davis LAL
10%
4 LeBron James LAL
9%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
6 Brandon Boston NO
8%
7 Yves Missi NO
8%
8 Jose Alvarado NO
7%
9 Dalton Knecht LAL
7%
10 Javonte Green NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
36%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 29.1 10.5 3.5
2 LeBron James LAL 26.2 9.8 10.0
3 Brandon Ingram NO 25.4 5.9 6.5
4 Austin Reaves LAL 19.5 3.9 5.9
5 Trey Murphy III NO 16.0 5.1 2.2
6 D'Angelo Russell LAL 14.1 2.7 5.0
7 Brandon Boston NO 13.4 4.2 4.2
8 Jose Alvarado NO 12.4 2.7 4.7
9 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 8.7 4.7 1.5
10 Dalton Knecht LAL 8.1 2.3 1.3
11 Yves Missi NO 7.5 6.8 1.6
12 Javonte Green NO 6.9 3.5 1.3
13 Jaylen Nowell NO 6.9 2.2 1.5
14 Cam Reddish LAL 6.1 2.9 1.1
15 Jamal Cain NO 5.6 3.1 0.9
16 Max Christie LAL 5.3 2.1 1.2
17 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.0 1.4 0.9
18 Trey Jemison III NO 3.5 3.5 0.8
19 Daniel Theis NO 3.5 3.1 0.8
20 Armel Traore LAL 3.3 2.9 0.3
21 Christian Koloko LAL 3.1 1.5 0.6
22 Antonio Reeves NO 3.0 1.2 0.6
23 Bronny James LAL 2.6 1.1 0.4
24 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.5 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.