NBA games

TOR @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
123–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
TOR262831299123
BOS2828302812126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home BOS
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jakob Poeltl S 37 35 12 0
RJ Barrett S 42 25 10 15
Chris Boucher 20 15 5 0
Ochai Agbaji S 39 13 6 3
Davion Mitchell S 32 10 3 5
Gradey Dick S 37 9 2 5
Jamal Shead 21 6 1 4
Bruno Fernando 9 4 2 2
Jamison Battle 11 3 0 1
Jonathan Mogbo 17 3 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 43 27 6 7
Jayson Tatum S 42 24 11 9
Al Horford S 32 18 4 2
Derrick White S 41 18 5 4
Sam Hauser 25 14 0 1
Neemias Queta S 33 12 8 2
Payton Pritchard 24 6 0 1
Luke Kornet 17 4 6 3
Jordan Walsh 8 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
RJ Barrett · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"RJ Barrett makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 RJ Barrett TOR
14%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
3 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
5 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
6 Gradey Dick TOR
8%
7 Ochai Agbaji TOR
8%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
9 Neemias Queta BOS
6%
10 Derrick White BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
37%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 28.7 7.7 6.2
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 25.9 6.6 4.2
3 RJ Barrett TOR 22.9 5.9 5.9
4 Gradey Dick TOR 20.4 3.6 3.1
5 Derrick White BOS 19.2 4.7 4.9
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 18.4 3.3 3.6
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 17.0 11.7 3.1
8 Immanuel Quickley TOR 14.8 2.7 5.3
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 14.5 4.2 4.4
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR 12.9 4.7 2.0
11 Davion Mitchell TOR 10.7 3.5 5.7
12 Chris Boucher TOR 9.8 4.5 1.0
13 Al Horford BOS 9.3 5.4 1.9
14 Sam Hauser BOS 6.9 3.5 1.3
15 Neemias Queta BOS 6.0 5.8 0.8
16 Jamison Battle TOR 4.9 2.2 0.9
17 Luke Kornet BOS 4.9 3.9 1.5
18 Jamal Shead TOR 4.8 1.4 2.6
19 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 4.6 4.0 1.5
20 Bruno Fernando TOR 3.5 3.7 0.8
21 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.8 2.3 0.9
22 Garrett Temple TOR 2.4 1.3 0.5
23 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.4 1.3 0.6
24 Jaden Springer BOS 2.1 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.