NBA games

MIL @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
114–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL39242724114
CHA33262729115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home CHA
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Taurean Prince S 35 23 3 5
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 33 22 15 12
Bobby Portis 24 21 7 3
Andre Jackson Jr. S 33 14 2 1
Pat Connaughton 21 10 7 2
Gary Trent Jr. 18 10 0 1
Delon Wright S 33 7 3 6
Brook Lopez S 30 5 3 1
AJ Green 13 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 36 26 9 6
Miles Bridges S 27 19 7 3
Josh Green S 29 15 5 5
Brandon Miller S 34 13 4 3
Moussa Diabate 25 12 14 1
Tre Mann 21 11 4 0
Grant Williams S 30 6 7 2
Cody Martin 23 6 2 3
Seth Curry 5 4 0 0
Tidjane Salaun 10 3 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Taurean Prince · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Taurean Prince makes 25-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
17%
2 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
4 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
5 Taj Gibson CHA
9%
6 AJ Green MIL
9%
7 Delon Wright MIL
8%
8 Grant Williams CHA
8%
9 Taurean Prince MIL
8%
10 Josh Green CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
93%
Jumper
2%
Layup
3%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.7 10.6 10.0
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 27.6 5.0 6.6
3 Brandon Miller CHA 18.0 4.1 3.8
4 Tre Mann CHA 16.0 3.5 3.6
5 Miles Bridges CHA 13.0 5.5 2.4
6 Bobby Portis MIL 12.4 8.3 1.3
7 Brook Lopez MIL 11.4 5.1 1.5
8 Grant Williams CHA 10.8 4.3 2.5
9 Cody Martin CHA 10.0 3.8 1.9
10 Taurean Prince MIL 8.1 5.1 1.9
11 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 7.9 1.9 1.3
12 AJ Green MIL 7.3 2.0 1.2
13 Seth Curry CHA 5.6 2.0 1.0
14 Josh Green CHA 5.5 1.9 1.2
15 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.2 2.7 1.9
16 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.1 2.0 1.7
17 Tidjane Salaun CHA 4.6 4.3 1.3
18 Moussa Diabate CHA 4.3 6.6 0.7
19 Vasilije Micic CHA 4.2 2.2 1.8
20 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 3.9 1.3 1.0
21 Delon Wright MIL 3.7 1.4 1.7
22 AJ Johnson MIL 3.7 1.3 2.2
23 Tyler Smith MIL 3.2 2.0 0.5
24 Taj Gibson CHA 3.2 3.3 0.5
25 Stanley Umude MIL 2.9 1.2 0.6
26 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.7 1.1 0.6
27 Liam Robbins MIL 2.4 1.7 0.5
28 Jared Rhoden CHA 2.3 1.5 0.7
29 Chris Livingston MIL 2.2 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.