NBA games

DAL @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
113–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL28362128113
UTAH27343816115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home UTAH
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 37 7 9
Naji Marshall 34 19 2 4
Klay Thompson S 28 17 3 2
Quentin Grimes S 36 15 4 5
Daniel Gafford 19 10 5 0
Jaden Hardy 22 7 2 1
Dereck Lively II S 17 5 2 0
Maxi Kleber S 17 3 0 0
Spencer Dinwiddie 16 0 2 1
Dwight Powell 13 0 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
John Collins S 36 28 9 3
Jordan Clarkson 30 20 4 4
Collin Sexton S 31 16 5 3
Keyonte George S 31 14 0 6
Kyle Filipowski S 30 14 7 2
Lauri Markkanen S 24 13 5 2
Drew Eubanks 17 5 5 1
Cody Williams 15 3 3 2
Isaiah Collier 18 2 2 1
Johnny Juzang 7 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Klay Thompson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Klay Thompson DAL
13%
2 Keyonte George UTAH
12%
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
12%
4 John Collins UTAH
12%
5 Collin Sexton UTAH
12%
6 Daniel Gafford DAL
11%
7 Naji Marshall DAL
9%
8 Cody Williams UTAH
9%
9 Luka Doncic DAL
8%
10 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
44%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
32%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 29.3 7.6 8.2
2 John Collins UTAH 19.0 8.0 3.3
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 17.9 5.8 2.8
4 Collin Sexton UTAH 17.5 3.5 3.7
5 Keyonte George UTAH 15.3 3.2 5.9
6 Klay Thompson DAL 14.2 3.7 2.5
7 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 13.7 4.1 3.8
8 Daniel Gafford DAL 12.2 6.8 1.5
9 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.9 8.0 2.2
10 Naji Marshall DAL 9.7 4.2 2.6
11 Johnny Juzang UTAH 7.0 2.2 1.1
12 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 6.9 1.5 1.3
13 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 6.2 3.8 1.8
14 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 5.9 2.0 1.0
15 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 5.8 1.7 1.8
16 Cody Williams UTAH 5.7 2.8 1.6
17 Isaiah Collier UTAH 5.2 1.4 3.3
18 Drew Eubanks UTAH 5.0 4.0 1.0
19 Quentin Grimes DAL 4.9 2.6 0.9
20 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.6 1.5 1.4
21 Brandon Williams DAL 3.5 0.8 0.8
22 Patty Mills UTAH 3.5 1.1 1.1
23 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.1 1.6 0.5
24 Dwight Powell DAL 2.5 2.3 0.7
25 Kessler Edwards DAL 2.1 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.