NBA games

PHX @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
104–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX29272424104
SAC35263234127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home SAC
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Okogie 28 25 8 1
Devin Booker S 31 18 3 5
Tyus Jones S 31 10 2 8
Ryan Dunn S 28 10 3 1
Monte Morris 13 10 0 1
TyTy Washington Jr. 16 8 1 1
Bol Bol 6 5 1 0
Royce O'Neale S 22 5 5 4
Oso Ighodaro 15 4 1 0
Damion Lee 11 4 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 32 29 6 10
Kevin Huerter S 37 22 6 5
Keegan Murray S 33 17 4 1
Trey Lyles 22 13 5 3
Jordan McLaughlin 15 11 1 1
Domantas Sabonis S 30 11 10 9
Keon Ellis 26 9 2 0
Colby Jones 3 5 0 0
Isaac Jones 3 4 1 0
Alex Len 5 4 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
DeMar DeRozan · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:51 Q1
"DeMar DeRozan makes 18-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
16%
2 Devin Booker PHX
13%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
13%
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
5 Mason Plumlee PHX
9%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
7 Kevin Huerter SAC
8%
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
8%
9 Tyus Jones PHX
7%
10 Ryan Dunn PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
56%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.3 5.6 4.6
2 Devin Booker PHX 24.5 3.9 6.9
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 23.6 4.3 5.0
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 22.5 12.0 7.4
5 Keegan Murray SAC 12.8 7.8 1.9
6 Tyus Jones PHX 11.5 3.0 5.7
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.5 9.1 1.5
8 Kevin Huerter SAC 10.4 3.6 2.0
9 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.3 6.2 2.0
10 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.5 2.5 0.9
11 Keon Ellis SAC 6.2 2.5 1.2
12 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.8 5.8 1.3
13 Josh Okogie PHX 5.4 2.2 0.8
14 Monte Morris PHX 5.2 1.8 1.9
15 Trey Lyles SAC 5.1 3.5 0.7
16 Doug McDermott SAC 4.2 1.2 0.6
17 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.1 3.9 0.9
18 Bol Bol PHX 3.8 3.3 0.7
19 Mason Jones SAC 3.7 2.1 0.8
20 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 3.1 1.4 1.4
21 Isaac Jones SAC 3.0 2.0 0.7
22 Damion Lee PHX 2.7 0.7 0.6
23 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 2.7 1.0 0.3
24 Alex Len SAC 2.6 3.1 0.8
25 Colby Jones SAC 2.6 1.1 0.9
26 Jalen Bridges PHX 1.1 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.