NBA games

MIN @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
98–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN3315282298
POR23252830106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home POR
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 40 24 4 4
Julius Randle S 37 20 10 2
Naz Reid 28 15 3 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 32 13 5 3
Rudy Gobert S 34 12 10 0
Jaden McDaniels S 34 7 6 2
Rob Dillingham 9 3 0 0
Josh Minott 4 2 0 0
Donte DiVincenzo 22 2 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 36 33 6 1
Donovan Clingan S 31 17 12 1
Dalano Banton 24 13 2 5
Scoot Henderson S 27 11 4 5
Toumani Camara S 35 11 8 1
Jerami Grant S 35 8 3 2
Deni Avdija 18 7 6 1
Kris Murray 20 6 4 1
Rayan Rupert 3 0 0 0
Duop Reath 8 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
24%
2 Jerami Grant POR
13%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
4 Julius Randle MIN
11%
5 Donovan Clingan POR
11%
6 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
7 Toumani Camara POR
9%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
9 Naz Reid MIN
0%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
55%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
10%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.8 5.2 4.4
2 Julius Randle MIN 23.1 6.4 5.2
3 Jerami Grant POR 17.4 4.3 2.5
4 Naz Reid MIN 15.5 5.5 2.1
5 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.8 10.5 2.0
6 Scoot Henderson POR 11.6 3.2 4.5
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.4 3.8 1.6
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.4 3.6 3.8
9 Shaedon Sharpe POR 11.3 3.0 1.7
10 Deni Avdija POR 10.5 5.1 3.0
11 Toumani Camara POR 10.3 4.3 2.1
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.1 2.6 2.8
13 Dalano Banton POR 7.9 2.0 1.8
14 Luka Garza MIN 7.7 3.4 0.5
15 Josh Minott MIN 6.6 3.3 1.1
16 Donovan Clingan POR 5.4 5.0 0.6
17 Rob Dillingham MIN 5.2 1.2 2.9
18 Kris Murray POR 4.5 2.3 0.8
19 Rayan Rupert POR 4.3 1.8 0.6
20 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.2 1.4 1.0
21 Duop Reath POR 3.1 1.5 0.6
22 Jabari Walker POR 2.9 2.2 0.5
23 PJ Dozier MIN 2.4 0.8 0.6
24 Justin Minaya POR 2.1 0.7 0.4
25 Joe Ingles MIN 1.7 1.0 1.5
26 Taze Moore POR 1.3 0.7 0.3
27 Bryce McGowens POR 1.3 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.