NBA games

MEM @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
123–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM26383227123
LAL38272637128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home LAL
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 33 29 7 1
Santi Aldama S 29 15 7 5
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 32 15 3 3
Marcus Smart 23 15 2 6
Zach Edey 26 12 8 1
Luke Kennard 26 12 2 4
Jake LaRavia 20 10 3 4
Jaylen Wells S 27 9 3 2
Jay Huff S 13 6 3 0
John Konchar 11 0 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 37 35 12 14
Anthony Davis S 32 21 14 3
Dalton Knecht 31 19 2 3
Rui Hachimura S 36 19 7 3
Austin Reaves S 36 18 2 6
D'Angelo Russell 20 8 2 2
Cam Reddish S 23 4 2 0
Christian Koloko 13 4 1 0
Gabe Vincent 13 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Santi Aldama · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Santi Aldama makes 5-foot hook shot (Jaylen Wells assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
14%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
10%
5 Santi Aldama MEM
10%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
7 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
9%
8 Anthony Davis LAL
9%
9 Marcus Smart MEM
8%
10 Cam Reddish LAL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
32%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 29.0 10.4 3.6
2 LeBron James LAL 24.8 7.6 8.2
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 22.4 6.1 1.9
4 Austin Reaves LAL 19.3 4.5 5.4
5 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 14.7 4.3 6.4
6 D'Angelo Russell LAL 13.4 2.6 4.8
7 Santi Aldama MEM 13.2 7.4 4.0
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.0 5.9 1.5
9 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.9 3.8 1.9
10 Zach Edey MEM 11.8 7.0 1.3
11 Jake LaRavia MEM 11.0 5.6 4.0
12 Jay Huff MEM 8.0 3.0 1.0
13 Luke Kennard MEM 6.1 1.9 3.1
14 John Konchar MEM 5.7 4.6 1.5
15 Dalton Knecht LAL 5.7 1.7 1.1
16 Marcus Smart MEM 5.5 1.6 2.8
17 Cam Reddish LAL 5.1 2.8 1.0
18 Gabe Vincent LAL 4.3 1.3 0.8
19 Max Christie LAL 3.9 1.8 0.9
20 Armel Traore LAL 2.9 2.9 0.3
21 Yuki Kawamura MEM 2.8 0.8 1.4
22 Bronny James LAL 2.7 1.3 0.5
23 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.6 1.4 0.5
24 Colin Castleton MEM 2.4 2.1 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.