NBA games

WSH @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
130–139
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH31362439130
SA32354131139

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home SA
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 33 42 2 6
Corey Kispert 33 19 2 2
Jonas Valanciunas 22 16 13 2
Bub Carrington S 30 13 5 5
Alex Sarr S 26 12 2 2
Kyshawn George 32 12 3 5
Kyle Kuzma S 25 10 6 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 38 6 8 3
Justin Champagnie 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 32 50 6 2
Devin Vassell 25 17 2 3
Julian Champagnie S 33 12 5 2
Stephon Castle S 27 10 1 5
Blake Wesley 13 10 1 2
Harrison Barnes S 30 10 7 2
Chris Paul S 29 9 3 11
Malaki Branham 13 8 1 2
Keldon Johnson 23 8 6 3
Zach Collins 16 5 7 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julian Champagnie · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Julian Champagnie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
16%
2 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
11%
3 Alex Sarr WSH
11%
4 Julian Champagnie SA
10%
5 Chris Paul SA
10%
6 Harrison Barnes SA
9%
7 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
8 Bub Carrington WSH
8%
9 Kyle Kuzma WSH
8%
10 Stephon Castle SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
21%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 32.0 11.5 3.8
2 Jordan Poole WSH 20.5 3.0 4.8
3 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 16.8 5.0 2.9
4 Kyle Kuzma WSH 14.1 5.2 2.9
5 Keldon Johnson SA 13.7 6.1 1.8
6 Chris Paul SA 13.5 3.7 8.1
7 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 11.0 6.8 2.2
8 Julian Champagnie SA 11.0 4.8 1.7
9 Harrison Barnes SA 10.5 3.8 1.8
10 Bub Carrington WSH 10.4 4.0 4.3
11 Corey Kispert WSH 10.4 2.7 1.6
12 Stephon Castle SA 10.1 3.2 2.7
13 Kyshawn George WSH 9.5 4.4 2.4
14 Alex Sarr WSH 9.3 6.1 1.7
15 Malaki Branham SA 8.8 1.9 1.3
16 Zach Collins SA 5.8 2.9 1.9
17 Jared Butler WSH 5.6 1.5 2.8
18 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.8 2.6 0.8
19 Blake Wesley SA 4.6 1.4 1.8
20 Sidy Cissoko SA 4.3 2.2 1.0
21 Charles Bassey SA 4.1 2.9 0.6
22 Marvin Bagley III WSH 3.9 3.0 0.8
23 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 3.9 1.6 0.5
24 Johnny Davis WSH 3.8 1.5 0.7
25 Justin Champagnie WSH 3.0 1.6 0.3
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.9 1.0 0.6
27 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.5 2.0 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.