NBA games

DET @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
120–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
DET273324279120
MIL2423382616127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home MIL
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 43 35 7 11
Malik Beasley S 44 26 10 4
Ronald Holland II S 29 11 4 2
Marcus Sasser 25 11 0 1
Tobias Harris S 44 10 8 5
Wendell Moore Jr. 23 9 4 0
Jalen Duren S 34 9 9 6
Isaiah Stewart 14 9 3 0
Paul Reed 8 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 44 59 14 7
Brook Lopez S 40 29 8 0
Taurean Prince S 45 15 10 3
Gary Trent Jr. 34 11 4 3
Pat Connaughton 24 6 3 2
Andre Jackson Jr. 31 4 2 2
AJ Green S 21 3 2 1
Delon Wright S 27 0 4 8

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cade Cunningham · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Cade Cunningham makes 14-foot step back jumpshot (Jalen Duren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
24%
2 Tobias Harris DET
15%
3 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
14%
4 Brook Lopez MIL
14%
5 Jalen Duren DET
12%
6 AJ Green MIL
11%
7 Taurean Prince MIL
9%
8 Malik Beasley DET
0%
9 Ronald Holland II DET
0%
10 Paul Reed DET
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
31%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 32.6 11.4 6.1
2 Cade Cunningham DET 24.2 8.1 9.0
3 Tobias Harris DET 15.3 8.2 2.7
4 Malik Beasley DET 12.0 2.6 2.1
5 Brook Lopez MIL 9.8 4.8 1.6
6 Jalen Duren DET 9.5 9.6 2.6
7 Isaiah Stewart DET 7.8 8.3 2.0
8 Taurean Prince MIL 7.8 4.9 1.8
9 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 7.8 2.0 1.2
10 AJ Green MIL 6.9 1.7 1.1
11 Ronald Holland II DET 5.7 2.3 0.8
12 Cole Swider DET 5.4 2.6 0.9
13 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.2 2.3 1.7
14 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.6 2.5 1.5
15 AJ Johnson MIL 4.2 1.6 2.2
16 Paul Reed DET 3.8 3.0 1.1
17 Delon Wright MIL 3.8 1.5 1.1
18 Alondes Williams DET 3.6 1.6 2.3
19 Tyler Smith MIL 3.6 2.2 0.6
20 Stanley Umude MIL 3.4 1.5 0.6
21 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 3.2 1.4 0.7
22 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 2.9 1.5 0.4
23 Daniss Jenkins DET 2.9 1.2 0.8
24 Chris Livingston MIL 2.7 1.7 0.5
25 Liam Robbins MIL 2.6 1.7 0.5
26 Marcus Sasser DET 2.2 0.7 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.