NBA games

LAC @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
103–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC28282324103
HOU28332822111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home HOU
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 31 19 6 7
Terance Mann 24 14 7 3
Norman Powell S 33 13 5 3
Kris Dunn S 31 11 4 8
Derrick Jones Jr. S 22 11 2 1
Ivica Zubac S 27 8 6 1
Jordan Miller 12 8 3 1
Amir Coffey 26 7 2 1
Bones Hyland 5 5 1 0
Kobe Brown 8 4 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 36 21 7 5
Amen Thompson 34 18 11 2
Tari Eason 26 18 10 1
Dillon Brooks S 30 15 5 2
Fred VanVleet S 34 15 5 5
Alperen Sengun S 30 13 11 6
Jabari Smith Jr. S 21 5 4 1
Jock Landale 17 4 4 4
Reed Sheppard 11 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dillon Brooks · Layup (2 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Dillon Brooks makes 2-foot layup (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 James Harden LAC
14%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
4 Jalen Green HOU
10%
5 Amen Thompson HOU
9%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
8 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
9 Terance Mann LAC
7%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
25%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Norman Powell LAC 23.1 3.7 3.0
2 James Harden LAC 22.8 7.7 8.1
3 Jalen Green HOU 21.0 4.8 3.7
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 19.0 10.3 3.7
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 16.4 11.6 2.7
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 13.0 3.8 5.6
7 Tari Eason HOU 12.0 5.7 1.7
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 11.7 3.7 1.4
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.6 6.4 1.3
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 11.3 3.5 1.4
11 Amen Thompson HOU 10.3 6.2 2.4
12 Amir Coffey LAC 9.1 2.3 1.2
13 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 8.8 3.4 2.7
14 Kris Dunn LAC 7.2 3.4 2.4
15 Jordan Miller LAC 6.2 1.8 0.9
16 Terance Mann LAC 5.9 3.2 1.4
17 Bones Hyland LAC 5.0 2.1 0.8
18 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.7 2.9 1.5
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.4 1.2 1.0
20 Jock Landale HOU 4.2 2.7 0.6
21 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.2 1.4 1.3
22 Kobe Brown LAC 4.0 3.3 1.2
23 Jack McVeigh HOU 3.5 1.5 0.6
24 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.1 2.2 0.7
25 Jeff Green HOU 2.7 1.1 0.5
26 Kai Jones LAC 2.4 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.