NBA games

NO @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
88–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO2822182088
OKC33212824106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home OKC
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 35 18 6 6
Trey Murphy III S 26 14 2 2
Jamal Cain 19 11 4 1
Yves Missi S 26 10 10 2
Jaylen Nowell 26 8 6 1
Brandon Boston S 31 8 10 4
Antonio Reeves 8 6 1 0
Trey Jemison III 18 6 8 2
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 24 5 6 1
Javonte Green S 26 2 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 31 31 6 7
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 33 29 5 5
Luguentz Dort S 32 11 3 1
Aaron Wiggins 24 10 5 3
Kenrich Williams 14 7 1 0
Ajay Mitchell 26 6 2 3
Cason Wallace S 28 5 4 1
Adam Flagler 3 3 0 0
Ousmane Dieng 16 2 1 0
Dillon Jones 8 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Boston · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Brandon Boston Jr. makes 3-foot two point shot (Javonte Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram NO
18%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
16%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
14%
4 Yves Missi NO
12%
5 Luguentz Dort OKC
10%
6 Brandon Boston NO
10%
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC
10%
8 Isaiah Joe OKC
9%
9 Jordan Hawkins NO
0%
10 Javonte Green NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
52%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.0 5.6 6.9
2 Brandon Ingram NO 23.7 6.2 5.6
3 Jalen Williams OKC 23.0 6.7 5.8
4 Jordan Hawkins NO 15.4 4.2 1.6
5 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.9 3.9 2.0
6 Brandon Boston NO 10.3 3.4 2.9
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.6 3.7 2.2
8 Isaiah Joe OKC 9.2 3.1 1.8
9 Cason Wallace OKC 8.1 3.4 1.9
10 Yves Missi NO 7.0 6.4 1.4
11 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 6.7 3.6 1.1
12 Javonte Green NO 6.4 3.4 1.1
13 Jaylen Nowell NO 6.1 1.4 1.3
14 Ajay Mitchell OKC 5.9 1.8 1.9
15 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.8 2.9 1.2
16 Daniel Theis NO 4.5 3.7 1.0
17 Jamal Cain NO 4.0 2.2 0.5
18 Adam Flagler OKC 3.6 0.7 0.6
19 Antonio Reeves NO 3.2 1.5 0.5
20 Dillon Jones OKC 3.0 2.0 0.8
21 Alex Ducas OKC 2.8 0.8 0.5
22 Trey Jemison III NO 2.7 2.9 0.6
23 Malevy Leons OKC 2.5 1.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.