NBA games

CLE @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
114–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE31173432114
PHI27272428106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home PHI
78% 22%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 34 25 5 6
Donovan Mitchell S 34 23 13 9
Evan Mobley S 34 14 7 1
Jarrett Allen S 32 11 12 1
Isaac Okoro S 20 9 2 0
Georges Niang 16 8 1 0
Ty Jerome 13 8 0 2
Caris LeVert 25 7 3 3
Dean Wade 20 6 2 1
Craig Porter Jr. 11 3 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jared McCain S 38 34 2 10
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 34 20 6 0
Caleb Martin S 34 18 7 1
Reggie Jackson 27 13 4 4
Guerschon Yabusele S 31 10 9 5
Eric Gordon 12 7 2 0
Adem Bona 17 4 9 0
KJ Martin 15 0 1 0
Kyle Lowry S 17 0 2 3
Ricky Council IV 11 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes dunk (Darius Garland assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
21%
2 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
14%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
5 Darius Garland CLE
11%
6 Caleb Martin PHI
11%
7 Isaac Okoro CLE
9%
8 Kyle Lowry PHI
9%
9 Caris LeVert CLE
0%
10 Georges Niang CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
33%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.1 4.3 4.1
2 Darius Garland CLE 23.7 3.1 6.7
3 Evan Mobley CLE 19.2 9.5 3.0
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 14.3 4.7 1.8
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.2 10.8 1.9
6 Caleb Martin PHI 12.4 5.5 3.1
7 Caris LeVert CLE 11.9 3.4 4.6
8 Jared McCain PHI 9.9 2.4 1.5
9 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 9.2 4.6 1.6
10 Ty Jerome CLE 8.6 2.4 3.1
11 Kyle Lowry PHI 8.5 2.9 3.4
12 Georges Niang CLE 6.8 3.4 1.4
13 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.5 2.7 1.4
14 Dean Wade CLE 6.3 4.3 1.7
15 Eric Gordon PHI 5.8 1.5 1.4
16 KJ Martin PHI 5.5 3.1 0.8
17 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 4.7 1.7 1.3
18 Ricky Council IV PHI 4.5 1.7 0.8
19 Lester Quinones PHI 3.5 1.6 0.4
20 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.3 1.9 0.8
21 JT Thor CLE 3.2 1.9 0.3
22 Justin Edwards PHI 3.0 1.4 0.4
23 Reggie Jackson PHI 2.9 0.8 1.4
24 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 2.8 1.2 0.7
25 Adem Bona PHI 2.5 1.6 0.5
26 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.2 1.7 0.4
27 Luke Travers CLE 1.9 1.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.