NBA games

CHI @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
124–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI29303134124
NY22253838123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home NY
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 36 31 7 8
Coby White S 36 22 1 4
Nikola Vucevic S 34 19 11 3
Patrick Williams S 33 18 6 2
Ayo Dosunmu 25 16 3 6
Julian Phillips 11 5 1 0
Josh Giddey S 28 5 2 6
Dalen Terry 10 4 1 1
Matas Buzelis 12 4 4 0
Jalen Smith 14 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 39 46 10 3
Jalen Brunson S 34 24 3 8
Mikal Bridges S 43 20 6 5
OG Anunoby S 36 14 9 2
Cameron Payne 17 11 0 2
Josh Hart S 34 6 8 6
Miles McBride 23 2 1 2
Matt Ryan 5 0 0 0
Jericho Sims 9 0 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Coby White · Layup (2 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Coby White makes two point shot (Josh Giddey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Coby White CHI
11%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
3 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
4 OG Anunoby NY
10%
5 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
7 Josh Hart NY
10%
8 Patrick Williams CHI
9%
9 Zach LaVine CHI
9%
10 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
22%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.6 3.5 6.8
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 24.8 11.6 3.5
3 Zach LaVine CHI 22.0 4.9 3.8
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 21.3 9.8 3.8
5 Coby White CHI 21.3 3.6 5.4
6 Mikal Bridges NY 17.0 4.2 3.8
7 OG Anunoby NY 16.9 4.7 2.9
8 Josh Giddey CHI 15.8 6.3 6.8
9 Josh Hart NY 15.8 9.4 5.9
10 Miles McBride NY 12.2 3.0 2.9
11 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 11.9 4.3 3.8
12 Patrick Williams CHI 9.9 5.3 2.0
13 Cameron Payne NY 8.8 2.6 3.3
14 Jalen Smith CHI 7.1 5.1 0.8
15 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 5.5 2.2 1.5
16 Tyler Kolek NY 5.4 1.5 1.9
17 Julian Phillips CHI 5.0 2.2 0.7
18 Dalen Terry CHI 4.9 2.5 1.0
19 Pacome Dadiet NY 4.6 1.6 0.5
20 Adama Sanogo CHI 3.9 3.5 0.7
21 Jericho Sims NY 3.5 3.8 0.7
22 Matas Buzelis CHI 3.2 2.1 0.6
23 Matt Ryan NY 3.2 1.3 0.7
24 Chris Duarte CHI 3.1 1.3 0.6
25 Torrey Craig CHI 2.7 1.1 0.3
26 Jevon Carter CHI 2.7 0.8 0.5
27 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.3 2.5 0.4
28 Jacob Toppin NY 1.7 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.