NBA games

BOS @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
139–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS32333836139
BKN34262925114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home BKN
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 35 36 9 10
Jaylen Brown S 36 24 12 4
Payton Pritchard 36 23 6 8
Jrue Holiday S 32 16 6 4
Sam Hauser 26 12 6 1
Derrick White S 22 9 2 3
Neemias Queta S 21 8 1 1
Luke Kornet 27 8 3 3
Jordan Walsh 2 3 0 0
Drew Peterson 2 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ziaire Williams S 26 23 6 1
Cam Thomas S 28 17 3 3
Dennis Schroder S 31 16 4 3
Keon Johnson 23 12 5 0
Jalen Wilson 22 11 5 4
Noah Clowney 18 9 2 2
Cameron Johnson S 26 9 4 3
Shake Milton 24 8 0 8
Tyrese Martin 17 6 0 0
Nic Claxton S 24 3 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nic Claxton · Layup (2 pts) · 10:55 Q1
"Nic Claxton makes layup (Cameron Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
14%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
12%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
5 Derrick White BOS
9%
6 Dennis Schroder BKN
9%
7 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
8 Cameron Johnson BKN
8%
9 Ziaire Williams BKN
7%
10 Al Horford BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
51%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.0 7.4 5.2
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.5 6.0 4.0
3 Cam Thomas BKN 23.2 3.6 3.8
4 Dennis Schroder BKN 21.3 3.3 6.2
5 Derrick White BOS 19.9 4.8 4.5
6 Cameron Johnson BKN 17.3 4.3 2.8
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.7 3.0 2.7
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.4 3.8 4.3
9 Nic Claxton BKN 9.7 8.1 2.2
10 Al Horford BOS 9.0 5.4 1.9
11 Ziaire Williams BKN 8.5 4.3 1.3
12 Jalen Wilson BKN 7.2 3.1 1.8
13 Sam Hauser BOS 6.6 3.7 1.2
14 Noah Clowney BKN 6.6 3.8 1.0
15 Neemias Queta BOS 6.2 6.0 0.8
16 Keon Johnson BKN 4.8 2.8 1.0
17 Drew Peterson BOS 4.7 1.2 0.5
18 Luke Kornet BOS 4.5 3.7 1.2
19 Jaylen Martin BKN 2.9 1.0 0.4
20 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.8 2.6 0.6
21 Shake Milton BKN 2.7 1.0 0.8
22 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.4 1.4 0.5
23 Tyrese Martin BKN 2.3 1.1 0.4
24 Jaden Springer BOS 1.8 0.6 0.5
25 Dariq Whitehead BKN 1.5 0.7 0.3
26 Yongxi Cui BKN 1.3 0.6 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.