NBA games

IND @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
90–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND2718271890
ORL1823272694

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home ORL
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 39 25 7 2
Bennedict Mathurin S 35 23 12 0
Myles Turner S 34 11 2 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 40 9 1 11
Johnny Furphy 9 7 2 0
Ben Sheppard S 26 5 3 1
T.J. McConnell 15 4 6 3
Jarace Walker 23 4 5 2
Obi Toppin 19 2 3 2
Enrique Freeman 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 37 29 3 6
Goga Bitadze S 28 12 12 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 34 10 5 3
Moritz Wagner 18 10 2 0
Jonathan Isaac 22 8 11 1
Jalen Suggs S 38 8 2 3
Anthony Black 25 6 4 6
Jett Howard 14 6 0 2
Tristan da Silva S 21 3 9 3
Cole Anthony 5 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bennedict Mathurin · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Bennedict Mathurin makes driving layup (Tyrese Haliburton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bennedict Mathurin IND
16%
2 Myles Turner IND
11%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
4 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
6 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
7 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
8%
9 Tristan da Silva ORL
7%
10 Ben Sheppard IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
10%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 22.5 5.6 5.0
2 Pascal Siakam IND 20.9 6.4 4.5
3 Bennedict Mathurin IND 18.8 5.8 2.3
4 Jalen Suggs ORL 18.1 5.6 4.8
5 Myles Turner IND 17.7 7.0 1.9
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND 17.3 4.4 7.8
7 Moritz Wagner ORL 12.4 4.7 1.5
8 Anthony Black ORL 9.2 3.4 3.9
9 T.J. McConnell IND 8.2 2.3 3.6
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 8.2 3.0 1.8
11 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.1 3.3 1.5
12 Obi Toppin IND 7.8 2.8 1.2
13 Goga Bitadze ORL 7.1 7.0 1.3
14 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.7 3.6 0.6
15 Ben Sheppard IND 5.5 2.0 1.1
16 Cole Anthony ORL 5.1 2.5 1.9
17 Jarace Walker IND 4.7 2.4 0.9
18 Quenton Jackson IND 4.5 1.6 1.4
19 Jett Howard ORL 4.5 1.6 0.6
20 Gary Harris ORL 4.4 2.1 0.7
21 Enrique Freeman IND 4.3 3.0 0.7
22 Cory Joseph ORL 3.2 1.6 0.9
23 Trevelin Queen ORL 3.0 1.4 0.7
24 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.8 1.3 0.6
25 Mac McClung ORL 2.6 0.9 0.9
26 Johnny Furphy IND 1.9 0.9 0.4
27 James Johnson IND 1.5 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.