NBA games

SAC @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
96–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC2629162596
SA22382432116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home SA
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 36 24 6 3
Domantas Sabonis S 36 23 12 4
DeMar DeRozan S 38 21 8 6
Trey Lyles 27 8 4 0
Jordan McLaughlin 9 5 1 1
Doug McDermott 13 5 0 0
Keegan Murray S 29 5 3 1
Keon Ellis 23 3 0 0
Kevin Huerter S 24 2 3 3
Isaac Jones 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 34 34 14 6
Julian Champagnie S 27 13 6 1
Chris Paul S 30 12 6 11
Devin Vassell 21 12 2 4
Keldon Johnson 25 11 3 1
Harrison Barnes S 30 10 5 2
Stephon Castle S 31 10 4 6
Sandro Mamukelashvili 16 9 2 0
Zach Collins 13 3 1 0
Charles Bassey 1 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Harrison Barnes · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Harrison Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
14%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
12%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
6 Kevin Huerter SAC
9%
7 Julian Champagnie SA
9%
8 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
9 Stephon Castle SA
7%
10 Chris Paul SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
55%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 25.4 10.6 3.6
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 24.8 4.2 4.4
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC 24.5 4.9 5.1
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 22.6 12.1 6.5
5 Keegan Murray SAC 13.4 8.2 1.8
6 Keldon Johnson SA 12.7 5.8 1.7
7 Chris Paul SA 11.2 3.5 7.6
8 Kevin Huerter SAC 10.9 3.7 1.8
9 Julian Champagnie SA 10.6 5.1 1.8
10 Harrison Barnes SA 10.2 3.4 1.6
11 Stephon Castle SA 9.0 2.9 2.3
12 Keon Ellis SAC 6.4 2.4 1.1
13 Zach Collins SA 5.7 2.9 1.8
14 Trey Lyles SAC 4.5 3.1 0.7
15 Blake Wesley SA 4.5 1.3 2.0
16 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.2 2.3 0.7
17 Doug McDermott SAC 4.1 1.3 0.5
18 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 3.4 1.5 1.4
19 Alex Len SAC 3.2 3.4 0.8
20 Sidy Cissoko SA 3.2 1.7 0.8
21 Charles Bassey SA 2.9 2.6 0.3
22 Mason Jones SAC 2.8 1.9 0.6
23 Isaac Jones SAC 2.2 1.4 0.5
24 Colby Jones SAC 1.6 0.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.