NBA games

LAC @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
128–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC24294134128
OKC25413335134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home OKC
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 37 31 2 4
Ivica Zubac S 34 22 14 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 33 20 5 3
James Harden S 37 17 11 9
Amir Coffey 27 13 3 4
Kris Dunn 28 9 4 8
Kevin Porter Jr. 14 9 1 2
Terance Mann S 18 4 4 0
Nicolas Batum 12 3 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 39 45 3 9
Jalen Williams S 35 28 8 6
Luguentz Dort S 35 19 2 1
Alex Caruso 20 12 2 0
Isaiah Joe S 31 12 3 3
Aaron Wiggins S 29 10 4 4
Ousmane Dieng 9 3 1 1
Kenrich Williams 6 3 0 1
Ajay Mitchell 11 2 1 1
Cason Wallace 20 0 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Joe · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Isaiah Joe makes two point shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 James Harden LAC
20%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
14%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
13%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
5 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
9%
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC
8%
7 Norman Powell LAC
8%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Terance Mann LAC
8%
10 Nicolas Batum LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
29%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 27.0 6.0 6.5
2 James Harden LAC 23.0 8.6 9.6
3 Norman Powell LAC 22.2 4.2 3.1
4 Jalen Williams OKC 20.7 6.3 5.2
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 16.8 12.8 3.1
6 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.8 3.8 1.4
7 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.6 3.7 1.6
8 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.4 3.6 1.7
9 Amir Coffey LAC 9.3 2.6 1.0
10 Cason Wallace OKC 8.5 3.5 1.5
11 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 8.4 3.8 2.8
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.2 2.9 1.5
13 Kris Dunn LAC 7.1 3.7 2.1
14 Terance Mann LAC 6.7 3.7 1.7
15 Jordan Miller LAC 6.6 2.0 1.0
16 Ajay Mitchell OKC 5.7 1.6 1.7
17 Bones Hyland LAC 5.4 2.4 0.9
18 Alex Caruso OKC 5.3 2.9 2.1
19 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.2 3.3 1.6
20 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.7 2.9 0.9
21 Kobe Brown LAC 4.3 3.6 1.3
22 Dillon Jones OKC 3.3 2.4 1.1
23 Kai Jones LAC 3.2 2.8 0.6
24 Adam Flagler OKC 3.1 0.6 0.5
25 Malevy Leons OKC 2.6 1.7 0.5
26 Alex Ducas OKC 2.3 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.