NBA games

BKN @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
107105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN26282726107
NO22342920105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home NO
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 33 17 7 2
Cameron Johnson S 31 15 1 0
Noah Clowney 20 15 7 1
Dennis Schroder S 32 14 3 2
Nic Claxton S 32 13 9 3
Ziaire Williams S 28 12 9 0
Jalen Wilson 23 10 1 2
Ben Simmons 22 6 5 12
Keon Johnson 18 5 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 35 24 5 9
Yves Missi S 30 17 11 2
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 20 15 4 1
Trey Murphy III S 26 12 5 0
Jaylen Nowell 22 11 1 6
Javonte Green 27 8 4 2
Brandon Boston S 35 7 7 10
Daniel Theis 9 4 4 0
Jose Alvarado S 18 3 0 0
Trey Jemison III 9 2 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trey Murphy III · Dunk (2 pts) · 9:27 Q1
"Trey Murphy III makes dunk (Brandon Boston Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
17%
2 Brandon Ingram NO
15%
3 Cameron Johnson BKN
11%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
5 Dennis Schroder BKN
10%
6 Yves Missi NO
10%
7 Jose Alvarado NO
9%
8 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO
9%
9 Brandon Boston NO
9%
10 Ziaire Williams BKN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
51%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 25.5 3.4 4.0
2 Brandon Ingram NO 24.0 6.0 5.1
3 Dennis Schroder BKN 22.4 3.3 6.8
4 Cameron Johnson BKN 17.7 4.5 3.0
5 Jose Alvarado NO 12.1 2.7 4.6
6 Nic Claxton BKN 10.2 7.9 2.4
7 Brandon Boston NO 8.9 2.7 2.0
8 Ziaire Williams BKN 8.3 3.8 1.4
9 Jalen Wilson BKN 8.3 3.3 2.0
10 Ben Simmons BKN 7.8 5.6 5.5
11 Noah Clowney BKN 6.7 3.8 1.2
12 Yves Missi NO 5.8 5.3 1.3
13 Javonte Green NO 5.7 2.9 0.9
14 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 5.4 2.9 1.0
15 Keon Johnson BKN 5.1 2.8 1.2
16 Jaylen Nowell NO 4.5 0.9 0.6
17 Jamal Cain NO 4.2 2.3 0.6
18 Shake Milton BKN 3.8 1.4 1.2
19 Daniel Theis NO 3.8 3.2 1.2
20 Tyrese Martin BKN 2.8 1.3 0.5
21 Antonio Reeves NO 2.3 1.0 0.5
22 Trey Jemison III NO 1.9 2.2 0.5
23 Yongxi Cui BKN 1.8 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.