NBA games

WSH @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
92–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH2821202392
HOU30272525107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home HOU
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 24 18 4 0
Corey Kispert 34 12 1 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 35 11 4 0
Jordan Poole S 34 11 5 6
Bub Carrington S 31 10 2 6
Jonas Valanciunas 17 10 8 2
Kyshawn George 25 8 2 3
Alex Sarr S 28 5 6 1
Jared Butler 5 4 0 1
Johnny Davis 2 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 31 27 17 3
Jalen Green S 37 18 4 2
Amen Thompson S 28 13 8 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 32 11 9 0
Aaron Holiday 17 11 1 1
Tari Eason 26 10 6 2
Dillon Brooks S 33 8 4 3
Reed Sheppard 17 7 1 0
Steven Adams 15 2 7 1
Jae'Sean Tate 2 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 1-foot driving dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
15%
2 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
12%
3 Jalen Green HOU
11%
4 Alex Sarr WSH
10%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
7 Kyle Kuzma WSH
8%
8 Bub Carrington WSH
8%
9 Kyshawn George WSH
8%
10 Jordan Poole WSH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
30%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 21.9 4.7 3.7
2 Jordan Poole WSH 20.7 2.7 4.2
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.1 11.3 4.4
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 16.7 5.8 3.0
5 Kyle Kuzma WSH 12.9 5.0 2.8
6 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.3 3.9 1.3
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.2 6.5 1.4
8 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 12.1 7.2 2.3
9 Tari Eason HOU 11.3 5.3 1.6
10 Amen Thompson HOU 11.1 6.0 2.2
11 Corey Kispert WSH 10.7 3.1 1.6
12 Bub Carrington WSH 10.6 4.2 3.9
13 Alex Sarr WSH 10.4 6.7 2.0
14 Kyshawn George WSH 9.9 4.4 2.3
15 Jared Butler WSH 6.0 1.6 3.0
16 Marvin Bagley III WSH 4.5 3.4 0.8
17 Jack McVeigh HOU 4.4 1.8 0.7
18 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 4.3 1.8 0.5
19 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.3 1.8 1.7
20 Steven Adams HOU 4.1 4.2 1.6
21 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.1 1.1 1.1
22 Johnny Davis WSH 3.7 1.8 0.7
23 Jeff Green HOU 3.5 1.4 0.8
24 Anthony Gill WSH 3.1 1.2 0.6
25 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.1 2.4 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.