NBA games

CLE @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
119–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE34332824119
CHI35312621113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home CHI
77% 23%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 35 36 8 2
Darius Garland S 30 17 2 5
Evan Mobley S 31 15 11 2
Ty Jerome 21 12 4 6
Caris LeVert 24 12 2 3
Georges Niang 17 12 5 0
Jarrett Allen S 26 9 5 2
Isaac Okoro S 19 3 1 1
Dean Wade 19 3 4 2
Sam Merrill 18 0 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 36 26 6 3
Coby White S 37 20 7 6
Nikola Vucevic S 35 20 8 3
Josh Giddey S 31 18 8 7
Patrick Williams S 36 13 10 3
Ayo Dosunmu 31 10 3 4
Dalen Terry 15 4 4 0
Adama Sanogo 5 2 1 0
Julian Phillips 10 0 3 0
Matas Buzelis 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Giddey · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Josh Giddey makes 8-foot two point shot (Patrick Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
15%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
5 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
6 Coby White CHI
9%
7 Darius Garland CLE
8%
8 Zach LaVine CHI
8%
9 Patrick Williams CHI
8%
10 Isaac Okoro CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
28%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Darius Garland CLE 24.4 3.1 7.2
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.2 3.7 4.8
3 Zach LaVine CHI 22.3 4.6 3.9
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 21.6 9.7 3.3
5 Coby White CHI 20.6 3.7 5.4
6 Evan Mobley CLE 19.8 9.2 3.2
7 Josh Giddey CHI 15.1 6.2 6.3
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.9 11.8 2.1
9 Caris LeVert CLE 12.2 3.2 5.0
10 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 12.2 4.6 3.7
11 Patrick Williams CHI 9.8 4.7 2.0
12 Ty Jerome CLE 8.9 2.2 3.0
13 Dean Wade CLE 7.6 4.2 1.9
14 Sam Merrill CLE 7.3 2.2 1.6
15 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.8 2.8 1.6
16 Georges Niang CLE 6.4 3.3 1.5
17 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 6.0 2.4 1.4
18 Julian Phillips CHI 4.9 1.7 0.7
19 Dalen Terry CHI 4.3 2.1 0.9
20 Jaylon Tyson CLE 4.2 2.2 1.1
21 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.6 1.5 1.0
22 Jevon Carter CHI 3.5 1.2 0.7
23 Matas Buzelis CHI 3.4 2.2 0.6
24 Chris Duarte CHI 3.1 1.3 0.6
25 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.0 2.0 0.7
26 Adama Sanogo CHI 2.9 2.9 0.5
27 Torrey Craig CHI 2.7 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.