NBA games

TOR @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
103–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR34212721103
LAL26273535123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home LAL
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 36 18 7 4
Chris Boucher 20 18 5 3
Ochai Agbaji S 33 16 6 1
Jakob Poeltl S 31 14 10 4
Gradey Dick S 33 14 1 3
Immanuel Quickley S 27 12 1 4
Bruno Fernando 10 4 0 0
Jonathan Mogbo 8 3 3 0
Davion Mitchell 19 2 4 5
Jamal Shead 9 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Austin Reaves S 33 27 1 6
Anthony Davis S 26 22 4 3
LeBron James S 35 19 10 16
D'Angelo Russell 27 15 2 1
Jaxson Hayes 21 12 6 1
Cam Reddish S 29 11 2 1
Gabe Vincent 18 5 1 0
Dalton Knecht 15 5 1 2
Rui Hachimura S 32 4 5 0
Max Christie 2 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gradey Dick · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Gradey Dick makes 10-foot two point shot (Immanuel Quickley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 RJ Barrett TOR
13%
2 Jakob Poeltl TOR
12%
3 LeBron James LAL
11%
4 Gradey Dick TOR
11%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
11%
7 Rui Hachimura LAL
9%
8 Anthony Davis LAL
8%
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR
8%
10 Cam Reddish LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
41%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 29.4 10.7 3.7
2 RJ Barrett TOR 25.2 5.3 6.6
3 LeBron James LAL 25.1 6.7 7.8
4 Gradey Dick TOR 20.1 3.3 3.0
5 Austin Reaves LAL 20.1 4.8 5.2
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 16.5 3.2 6.1
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 15.9 11.4 3.2
8 Ochai Agbaji TOR 13.7 4.8 2.3
9 D'Angelo Russell LAL 13.7 2.6 5.8
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 13.4 5.9 1.7
11 Davion Mitchell TOR 11.3 2.9 6.0
12 Chris Boucher TOR 10.1 4.2 1.0
13 Dalton Knecht LAL 8.1 2.6 1.2
14 Jamal Shead TOR 6.7 1.6 4.0
15 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 6.0 4.3 1.9
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.0 4.7 1.0
17 Jamison Battle TOR 5.7 2.5 1.1
18 Cam Reddish LAL 5.2 3.1 1.0
19 Max Christie LAL 5.0 2.2 1.2
20 Gabe Vincent LAL 4.9 1.6 1.0
21 Bruno Fernando TOR 4.3 3.5 0.9
22 Bronny James LAL 3.6 1.8 0.7
23 Maxwell Lewis LAL 3.3 1.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.