NBA games

MEM @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
134–89
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM31334228134
POR1727242189

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home POR
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 24 20 7 2
Jake LaRavia 23 18 4 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 21 17 4 2
Jaylen Wells S 24 16 3 1
Santi Aldama S 30 16 6 6
Jay Huff 20 12 2 0
Zach Edey 24 12 6 2
Brandon Clarke S 16 9 6 1
John Konchar 23 4 6 1
Colin Castleton 7 4 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 28 20 1 1
Donovan Clingan 17 13 3 0
Dalano Banton 20 13 3 2
Toumani Camara S 26 9 4 0
Shaedon Sharpe S 19 7 3 0
Deandre Ayton S 21 6 8 1
Scoot Henderson 26 5 1 8
Robert Williams III 11 4 5 0
Anfernee Simons S 19 4 1 1
Duop Reath 5 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 6-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
16%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
3 Anfernee Simons POR
12%
4 Jerami Grant POR
11%
5 Brandon Clarke MEM
9%
6 Deni Avdija POR
8%
7 Santi Aldama MEM
8%
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
8%
9 Toumani Camara POR
8%
10 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
30%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 22.8 5.6 1.8
2 Anfernee Simons POR 20.4 2.8 5.3
3 Jerami Grant POR 17.2 4.4 2.2
4 Santi Aldama MEM 14.4 7.5 3.7
5 Deandre Ayton POR 14.3 10.2 1.5
6 Scoot Henderson POR 14.1 3.5 4.7
7 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 13.9 4.3 6.5
8 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.9 3.5 1.9
9 Deni Avdija POR 11.4 5.9 2.9
10 Zach Edey MEM 11.0 7.1 1.1
11 Jake LaRavia MEM 10.6 5.4 3.9
12 Toumani Camara POR 10.0 4.7 2.4
13 Jay Huff MEM 8.4 3.3 1.1
14 Dalano Banton POR 7.3 1.8 2.0
15 Luke Kennard MEM 6.2 2.0 1.7
16 John Konchar MEM 6.1 4.5 1.5
17 Rayan Rupert POR 5.6 1.7 0.7
18 Brandon Clarke MEM 5.4 2.9 0.9
19 Kris Murray POR 4.9 2.3 0.9
20 Donovan Clingan POR 4.6 4.9 0.5
21 Jabari Walker POR 4.2 2.4 0.7
22 Duop Reath POR 3.3 1.5 0.6
23 Yuki Kawamura MEM 3.2 1.1 1.8
24 Colin Castleton MEM 2.7 2.3 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.